Arch Capital Group
Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insuranc…
Arch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The company operates through three segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; and casualty insurance. Its Reinsurance segment provides reinsurance products for casualty; marine and aviation; property catastrophe; property excluding property catastrophe; and other specialty products. The Mortgage segment offers U.S. primary mortgage insurance business written predominantly on loans sold to the Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation; reinsurance and underwriting services related to the U.S. credit-risk transfer business and other U.S. mortgage reinsurance transactions; and international mortgage insurance and reinsurance business covering loans. It markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. The company was formerly known as Risk Capital Holdings, Inc. Arch Capital Group Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.Looks undervalued
Why: Banks and insurers earn their money on their balance sheet, so value follows book value and how much the company earns on it (return on equity).
Details and the full model are below.
Market price below modeled range
Showing the Fade DCF (10-year growth fade) you selected on the company card, using 6.44% growth, 2.4% terminal growth and 9.6% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice. Low confidence: the modelled value is far from the market price, which usually means the model does not capture this company well (for example expected growth well above its history).
Assumptions: growth 6.44%, discount rate 9.60%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.
Blended growth assumption: 6.4% (sector default 5.4%, own revenue history 21.2%, analyst revenue consensus -0.4%).
5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 17.4% a year (High confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.
Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of -0.4% a year; the growth assumption used is 6.4%.
Adjust assumptions
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Why this model: Banks and insurers earn their money on their balance sheet, so value follows book value and how much the company earns on it (return on equity).
Compare models- Recommended: Justified P/B (ROE) — USD 155.62 (+43.4%)
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EPS-based Gordon proxy
— USD 182.34 (+68.1%)
Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
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DCF (trailing free cash flow)
— USD 379.61 (+249.9%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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FCFF (steady state)
— USD 335.94 (+209.7%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/EBITDA (12x)
— USD 287.35 (+164.9%)
Not used: Used only when free cash flow is far below earnings even after averaging three years; a fixed 12x multiple also ignores sector differences.
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Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)
— USD 378.06 (+248.5%)
Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
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EV/Sales (Rule of 40)
— USD 482.50 (+344.7%)
Not used: Used only for technology and communication companies whose cash-flow value is far below the price.
| Bear USD 276.35 | 60.7% |
| Base USD 378.06 | 71.3% |
| Bull USD 580.09 | 81.3% |
Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.
Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.
Price history and fair value
No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.
More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials
Quality score: 100 / 100
Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.
| Profitability | 5 of 5 years profitable | 20 / 20 |
| Cash generation | free cash flow positive in 5 of 5 years | 20 / 20 |
| Growth | revenue +18.4% a year | 20 / 20 |
| Balance sheet | net cash | 20 / 20 |
| Margins | EBITDA margin 28% | 20 / 20 |
Peers in Financials
Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.
| Company | Price | Margin of safety | P/E | P/B | Yield | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACGL (this company) | USD 108.49 | 30.3% | 8.5 | 1.6 | 0.1% | 100 |
| PSH.L Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. | GBP 38.44 | 68.5% | 3.7 | 0.6 | 1.3% | 76 |
| LRE.L Lancashire Holdings Limited | GBP 6.88 | 45.6% | 7.1 | 1.6 | 3.3% | 76 |
| ACA.PA Credit Agricole S.A. | EUR 15.73 | 36.6% | 6.7 | 0.7 | 7.0% | 78 |
| V Visa Inc. | USD 414.00 | 34.6% | 8.7 | – | 0.2% | 100 |
| PRU.L Prudential plc | GBP 9.24 | 34.2% | 8.0 | 1.6 | 1.9% | 78 |
| AGS.BR ageas SA/NV | EUR 76.95 | 33.0% | 8.1 | 1.5 | 5.0% | 76 |
| NWG.L NatWest Group plc | GBP 5.86 | 30.3% | 8.2 | 1.3 | 5.0% | 88 |
| SYF Synchrony Financial | USD 73.92 | 30.0% | 7.2 | 1.4 | 2.1% | 100 |
| Peer median | 7.6 | 1.4 | ||||
Dividends
Paid in the last 12 months: USD 0.00 per share.
| Year | Dividends per share |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 5.000 |
Trailing 12-month financials
TTM through 30 Sep 2026 · quarterly EODHD data · data downloaded 06 Nov 2026 05:59
| Revenue | USD 18,875,000,000 |
|---|---|
| EBITDA | USD 5,289,000,000 |
| EBIT | USD 5,152,000,000 |
| Net income | USD 4,377,000,000 |
| Free cash flow | USD 5,629,000,000 |
| Capital expenditures | USD 44,000,000 |
| Debt | USD 4,286,000,000 |
| Cash | USD 38,920,000,000 |
| Working capital | USD 11,539,000,000 |
| Shares outstanding | 341,400,000 |
| Reported dividends per share | USD 0.1318 |