BPE.MI

BPER Banca S.p.A.

Financials company listed on Borsa Italiana. Business description not available yet.

Market price
EUR 12.99
Within modeled range
Base value (Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)) is 64.3% above the market price
5-year outlook: 9.8% per year · forecast
Data: Price update date unknown; FY2025, period ended 31 Dec 2025 from Yahoo Finance (downloaded 2 days ago).
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Verdict

Priced within the modelled range

PriceEUR 12.99
Fair value range10.92–42.04base 21.34
Estimate reliabilityMedium
5-year outlook9.8% / yr≈ EUR 20.76 in 5 yrs

Why: Banks, insurers and other financials are valued on the dividends they pay, not on free cash flow.

Start with the price and fair value range, then review the data dates and assumptions below. Estimates are not predictions or investment advice.

Fade DCF (10-year growth fade)

Market price within modeled range

Showing the Fade DCF (10-year growth fade) you selected on the company card, using 6.54% growth, 2.4% terminal growth and 9.6% discount. The range varies these assumptions slightly; it is illustrative, not investment advice.

Assumptions: growth 6.54%, discount rate 9.60%, terminal growth 2.40% (sector defaults). See a worked example.

Blended growth assumption: 6.5% (sector default 5.4%, own revenue history 17.4%, analyst revenue consensus 1.7%).

5-year outlook: relative outlook of about 9.8% a year (Medium confidence), anchored to a 7% market return and adjusted for how this company ranks against others. A ranking aid, not a prediction. See the full forecast.

Analyst consensus expects revenue growth of 1.7% a year; the growth assumption used is 6.5%.

Adjust assumptions

Show the recommended model instead

Why this model: Banks, insurers and other financials are valued on the dividends they pay, not on free cash flow.

Compare models
  • Recommended: Dividend discount model — EUR 9.96 (-23.4%)
  • EPS-based Gordon proxy — EUR 15.49 (+19.2%)
    Not used: Treats all earnings as if paid out and ignores the cash kept for reinvestment, so it overstates value for companies that retain most profit.
  • DCF (trailing free cash flow) — EUR 21.50 (+65.5%)
    Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
  • FCFF (steady state) — EUR 16.93 (+30.3%)
    Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
  • EV/EBITDA (12x) — not applicable
    Not used: Cannot be computed: EBITDA is missing, zero or negative.
  • Fade DCF (10-year growth fade) — EUR 21.34 (+64.3%)
    Not used: Cash-flow models do not suit banks and insurers, whose cash flow is mostly funding and deposits.
  • EV/Sales (Rule of 40) — not applicable
    Not used: Cannot be computed: revenue is missing.
Illustrative range / share EUR 10.92–42.04
Base scenario / share EUR 21.34
Margin of safety (share of value) Margin of safety vs base case
Bear EUR 10.92-19.0%
Base EUR 21.3439.1%
Bull EUR 42.0469.1%

Margin = (value − price) / value, so it is measured against the value and reads lower than the upside to value, which is measured against the price. Positive means the price is below that case.

Track record: see the methodology page for how this model has performed historically, including its limits. Treat it as a screen, not a forecast.

Price history and fair value

No chartable saved daily price history is available for this range. The chart uses stored EODHD prices only and will appear after history is saved.

Latest news

Headlines provided by EODHD. Articles may mention multiple companies and are not investment recommendations.

More detail: quality, peers, price history, dividends and financials

Quality score: 83 / 100

Five equal checks on reported history: profitability, cash generation, revenue growth, balance sheet and margins. It describes business quality, not whether the price is attractive.

Profitability4 of 4 years profitable20 / 20
Cash generationfree cash flow positive in 2 of 4 years10 / 20
Growthrevenue +17.4% a year20 / 20

Peers in Financials

Same-sector companies with a valuation, most undervalued first. Compare the margin of safety, yield and quality score side by side.

CompanyPriceMargin of safetyP/EP/BYieldQuality
BPE.MI (this company) EUR 12.99 -30.5% 11.9 – 5.4% 83
PSH.L Pershing Square Holdings, Ltd. GBP 38.44 68.5% 3.6 0.6 1.3% 76
LRE.L Lancashire Holdings Limited GBP 6.88 45.6% 7.1 1.6 3.3% 76
ACA.PA Credit Agricole S.A. EUR 15.73 36.6% 6.7 0.7 7.0% 78
V Visa Inc. USD 414.00 34.6% 8.7 – 0.2% 100
PRU.L Prudential plc GBP 9.24 34.3% 8.0 1.6 1.9% 78
AGS.BR ageas SA/NV EUR 76.95 33.0% 8.1 1.5 5.0% 76
NWG.L NatWest Group plc GBP 5.86 30.3% 8.2 1.3 5.0% 88
ACGL Arch Capital Group USD 108.49 30.3% 8.5 1.6 0.1% 100
Peer median 8.0 1.5
Sector Financials
Exchange Borsa Italiana
Currency EUR

Annual financial statement

Saved annual report · Fiscal year 2025 · Yahoo Finance annual statements · period ended 31 Dec 2025

RevenueEUR 6,973,747,000
EBITDAEUR
EBITEUR
Net incomeEUR 1,818,447,000
Free cash flowEUR 2,809,612,000
Capital expendituresEUR -312,321,000
DebtEUR 24,870,464,000
CashEUR 13,176,269,000
Working capitalEUR
Shares outstanding1,669,831,956
Reported dividends per shareEUR 0.7000