Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Associated British Foods plc (ABF.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; Fiscal year 2026; Annual financials downloaded 05 Nov 2026 16:05.

Starts from Fiscal year 2026 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 19.60. Growth begins at 3.5% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 12.5%, net 4.7%, free cash flow 6.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.6%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 24.51Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range GBP 16.89 to GBP 38.67
25%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

5.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 25.86BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.23BNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.68BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.84Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 27.50Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 19.60
12.2%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

GBP 0 GBP 588.54M GBP 1.18B GBP 1.77B GBP 2.35B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 Fiscal year 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.4% GBP 1.19B -0.7%
Base 2.6% GBP 1.68B 2.8%
Bull 8.6% GBP 2.35B 6.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2026– GBP 19.58BGBP 2.44BGBP 930.00MGBP 1.27B 1.321.810.6316.4619.60
Year 12.6% GBP 20.09BGBP 2.51BGBP 953.90MGBP 1.31B 1.351.850.6517.1720.36
Year 23.0% GBP 20.68BGBP 2.58BGBP 982.31MGBP 1.35B 1.391.910.6717.8921.22
Year 33.3% GBP 21.36BGBP 2.67BGBP 1.01BGBP 1.39B 1.441.970.6918.6422.18
Year 43.1% GBP 22.03BGBP 2.75BGBP 1.05BGBP 1.43B 1.482.030.7119.4123.15
Year 53.0% GBP 22.69BGBP 2.83BGBP 1.08BGBP 1.48B 1.532.090.7320.2124.14
Year 62.9% GBP 23.35BGBP 2.92BGBP 1.11BGBP 1.52B 1.572.150.7521.0324.84
Year 72.8% GBP 24.00BGBP 3.00BGBP 1.14BGBP 1.56B 1.622.210.7821.8725.52
Year 82.6% GBP 24.63BGBP 3.08BGBP 1.17BGBP 1.60B 1.662.270.8022.7326.20
Year 92.5% GBP 25.25BGBP 3.15BGBP 1.20BGBP 1.64B 1.702.330.8223.6226.86
Year 102.4% GBP 25.86BGBP 3.23BGBP 1.23BGBP 1.68B 1.742.390.8424.5327.50

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.