Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Airbnb (ABNB)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:16.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 170.13. Growth begins at 12.5% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 22.9%, net 20.4%, free cash flow 36.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (11.6%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 159.27Model fair value (Normalised free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 123.41 to USD 221.24
-6%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

7.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 27.58BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 5.63BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 10.18BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 350.29Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 170.13
10.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 3.50B USD 7.00B USD 10.49B USD 13.99B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 5.6% USD 7.32B 4.2%
Base 11.6% USD 10.18B 7.7%
Bull 17.6% USD 13.99B 11.1%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– USD 13.18BUSD 3.01BUSD 2.69BUSD 4.87B 4.518.15n/an/a170.13
Year 111.6% USD 14.71BUSD 3.36BUSD 3.00BUSD 5.43B 5.039.09n/an/a189.19
Year 211.5% USD 16.40BUSD 3.75BUSD 3.35BUSD 6.05B 5.6110.14n/an/a210.26
Year 310.4% USD 18.10BUSD 4.14BUSD 3.69BUSD 6.68B 6.1911.19n/an/a231.36
Year 49.3% USD 19.79BUSD 4.52BUSD 4.04BUSD 7.31B 6.7712.24n/an/a252.17
Year 58.3% USD 21.43BUSD 4.90BUSD 4.38BUSD 7.91B 7.3313.26n/an/a272.23
Year 67.3% USD 22.99BUSD 5.26BUSD 4.69BUSD 8.49B 7.8614.22n/an/a292.00
Year 76.2% USD 24.42BUSD 5.58BUSD 4.99BUSD 9.02B 8.3515.10n/an/a310.17
Year 85.2% USD 25.69BUSD 5.87BUSD 5.24BUSD 9.48B 8.7815.89n/an/a326.25
Year 94.1% USD 26.75BUSD 6.11BUSD 5.46BUSD 9.88B 9.1516.54n/an/a339.76
Year 103.1% USD 27.58BUSD 6.30BUSD 5.63BUSD 10.18B 9.4317.06n/an/a350.29

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.