Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V. (AD.AS)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 15:49.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 33.61. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 7.8%, net 2.5%, free cash flow 5.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 1.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 27.54Model fair value (Earnings-based DCF); range EUR 20.19 to EUR 41.19
-18%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

4.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 118.45BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.90BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 6.15BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.53Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 39.61Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 33.61
20.8%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Net income over time

EUR 0 EUR 819.14M EUR 1.64B EUR 2.46B EUR 3.28B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Net income in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.9% EUR 2.57B 1.4%
Base 2.4% EUR 2.90B 2.6%
Bull 3.9% EUR 3.28B 3.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– EUR 91.42BEUR 7.14BEUR 2.24BEUR 4.75B 2.545.391.1816.4033.61
Year 12.4% EUR 93.62BEUR 7.31BEUR 2.29BEUR 4.86B 2.605.521.2117.7933.79
Year 22.7% EUR 96.13BEUR 7.51BEUR 2.36BEUR 4.99B 2.675.671.2419.2334.06
Year 32.9% EUR 98.91BEUR 7.72BEUR 2.42BEUR 5.14B 2.755.831.2820.7034.39
Year 42.8% EUR 101.69BEUR 7.94BEUR 2.49BEUR 5.28B 2.835.991.3122.2134.68
Year 52.8% EUR 104.49BEUR 8.16BEUR 2.56BEUR 5.43B 2.916.161.3523.7734.94
Year 62.7% EUR 107.29BEUR 8.38BEUR 2.63BEUR 5.57B 2.986.321.3825.3735.88
Year 72.6% EUR 110.09BEUR 8.60BEUR 2.70BEUR 5.72B 3.066.491.4227.0136.82
Year 82.5% EUR 112.89BEUR 8.82BEUR 2.77BEUR 5.86B 3.146.651.4628.6937.75
Year 92.5% EUR 115.68BEUR 9.03BEUR 2.83BEUR 6.01B 3.226.821.4930.4238.68
Year 102.4% EUR 118.45BEUR 9.25BEUR 2.90BEUR 6.15B 3.296.981.5332.1839.61

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.