Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Admiral Group plc (ADM.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:27.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 39.66. Growth begins at 12.6% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 20.1%, net 13.3%, free cash flow 11.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 20.38Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range GBP 15.79 to GBP 28.49
-49%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

6.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 10.15BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.35BNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.19BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 2.61Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 54.68Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 39.66
9.8%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

GBP 0.00 GBP 0.90 GBP 1.80 GBP 2.71 GBP 3.61 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.3% GBP 1.86 2.7%
Base 3.7% GBP 2.61 6.2%
Bull 9.7% GBP 3.61 9.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 5.57BGBP 1.12BGBP 742.60MGBP 652.40M 2.422.121.434.7039.66
Year 13.7% GBP 5.78BGBP 1.16BGBP 769.93MGBP 676.41M 2.512.201.495.7239.12
Year 27.6% GBP 6.21BGBP 1.25BGBP 828.13MGBP 727.54M 2.702.371.606.8239.93
Year 310.3% GBP 6.85BGBP 1.38BGBP 913.51MGBP 802.55M 2.972.611.768.0341.67
Year 49.2% GBP 7.48BGBP 1.50BGBP 997.38MGBP 876.23M 3.252.851.929.3542.91
Year 58.1% GBP 8.09BGBP 1.62BGBP 1.08BGBP 946.77M 3.513.082.0810.7843.57
Year 66.9% GBP 8.65BGBP 1.74BGBP 1.15BGBP 1.01B 3.753.302.2212.3146.58
Year 75.8% GBP 9.15BGBP 1.84BGBP 1.22BGBP 1.07B 3.973.492.3513.9249.28
Year 84.7% GBP 9.57BGBP 1.92BGBP 1.28BGBP 1.12B 4.153.652.4615.6151.57
Year 93.5% GBP 9.91BGBP 1.99BGBP 1.32BGBP 1.16B 4.303.782.5517.3653.39
Year 102.4% GBP 10.15BGBP 2.04BGBP 1.35BGBP 1.19B 4.403.872.6119.1654.68

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.