Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

adidas AG (ADS.DE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 17:34.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 173.85. Growth begins at 6.3% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 12.4%, net 6.1%, free cash flow 9.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (net, free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (7.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 186.37Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range EUR 135.01 to EUR 275.07
7%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

2.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 42.91BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.90BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.86BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.34Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 206.69Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 173.85
9.5%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-EUR 1.17B EUR 113.55M EUR 1.40B EUR 2.69B EUR 3.98B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 1.4% EUR 2.04B -2.1%
Base 7.4% EUR 2.86B 1.2%
Bull 13.4% EUR 3.98B 4.6%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– EUR 26.66BEUR 3.30BEUR 1.62BEUR 2.53B 9.3914.622.0036.15173.85
Year 17.4% EUR 28.63BEUR 3.54BEUR 1.65BEUR 2.56B 9.5214.772.0343.64177.06
Year 26.7% EUR 30.54BEUR 3.78BEUR 1.66BEUR 2.55B 9.5714.762.0451.17178.53
Year 35.6% EUR 32.24BEUR 3.99BEUR 1.64BEUR 2.52B 9.4814.542.0258.63177.53
Year 45.2% EUR 33.93BEUR 4.20BEUR 1.61BEUR 2.46B 9.3214.191.9965.97175.18
Year 54.9% EUR 35.59BEUR 4.40BEUR 1.57BEUR 2.38B 9.0913.731.9473.12171.43
Year 64.5% EUR 37.20BEUR 4.60BEUR 1.64BEUR 2.48B 9.5014.352.0280.60179.19
Year 74.2% EUR 38.75BEUR 4.79BEUR 1.71BEUR 2.59B 9.9014.952.1188.39186.66
Year 83.8% EUR 40.23BEUR 4.98BEUR 1.78BEUR 2.69B 10.2815.522.1996.47193.78
Year 93.5% EUR 41.62BEUR 5.15BEUR 1.84BEUR 2.78B 10.6316.062.27104.84200.48
Year 103.1% EUR 42.91BEUR 5.31BEUR 1.90BEUR 2.86B 10.9616.552.34113.47206.69

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.