Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

ageas SA/NV (AGS.BR)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 17:51.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 77.60. Growth begins at 8.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 4.1%, net 17.7%, free cash flow 29.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 114.93Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range EUR 95.57 to EUR 149.19
48%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data.

14.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 16.62BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.93BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 3.56BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 6.02Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 257.40Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 77.60
23.2%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 36.56 EUR 73.11 EUR 109.67 EUR 146.22 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.3% EUR 110.01 7.8%
Base 2.7% EUR 126.07 9.3%
Bull 8.7% EUR 146.22 11.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– EUR 10.65BEUR 440.00MEUR 1.88BEUR 3.18B 9.5216.093.8651.7277.60
Year 12.7% EUR 10.93BEUR 451.75MEUR 1.93BEUR 3.08B 9.7715.593.9657.5392.54
Year 25.2% EUR 11.50BEUR 475.17MEUR 2.03BEUR 3.05B 10.2815.424.1763.63109.26
Year 37.0% EUR 12.31BEUR 508.60MEUR 2.17BEUR 3.05B 11.0015.454.4670.17128.08
Year 46.4% EUR 13.09BEUR 541.01MEUR 2.31BEUR 3.03B 11.7015.324.7577.13149.12
Year 55.7% EUR 13.84BEUR 571.91MEUR 2.44BEUR 2.97B 12.3715.015.0284.48172.48
Year 65.0% EUR 14.54BEUR 600.78MEUR 2.57BEUR 3.12B 12.9915.775.2792.20188.25
Year 74.4% EUR 15.18BEUR 627.14MEUR 2.68BEUR 3.25B 13.5616.465.50100.26204.71
Year 83.7% EUR 15.74BEUR 650.50MEUR 2.78BEUR 3.37B 14.0717.075.71108.63221.78
Year 93.1% EUR 16.23BEUR 670.42MEUR 2.87BEUR 3.48B 14.5017.595.88117.24239.38
Year 102.4% EUR 16.62BEUR 686.51MEUR 2.93BEUR 3.56B 14.8518.026.02126.07257.40

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.