Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Aker Solutions ASA (AKSO.OL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:46.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in NOK and a share price of NOK 35.92. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.5% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 7.9%, net 4.1%, free cash flow 3.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-20.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
NOK 46.55Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range NOK 36.07 to NOK 65.09
30%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

10.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
NOK 54.36BRevenue in year 10 (base)
NOK 3.60BNet income in year 10 (base)
NOK 3.55BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
NOK 4.64Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
NOK 54.46Implied share price in year 10 (base), today NOK 35.92
20.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

NOK 0.00 NOK 5.73 NOK 11.46 NOK 17.20 NOK 22.93 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -26.0% NOK 3.18 -0.3%
Base -20.0% NOK 4.64 3.5%
Bull -14.0% NOK 6.65 7.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– NOK 62.20BNOK 4.92BNOK 2.55BNOK 2.12B 5.264.373.2923.5235.92
Year 1-20.0% NOK 49.76BNOK 3.61BNOK 2.29BNOK 2.00B 4.734.142.9525.2932.75
Year 2-9.0% NOK 45.30BNOK 3.00BNOK 2.31BNOK 2.11B 4.774.352.9827.0933.56
Year 32.1% NOK 46.25BNOK 2.76BNOK 2.59BNOK 2.44B 5.365.043.3529.1038.20
Year 42.2% NOK 47.26BNOK 2.52BNOK 2.89BNOK 2.79B 5.965.773.7331.3443.13
Year 52.2% NOK 48.31BNOK 2.26BNOK 3.20BNOK 3.16B 6.606.524.1233.8148.39
Year 62.3% NOK 49.41BNOK 2.32BNOK 3.27BNOK 3.23B 6.756.674.2236.3549.50
Year 72.3% NOK 50.56BNOK 2.37BNOK 3.34BNOK 3.30B 6.916.824.3138.9450.65
Year 82.4% NOK 51.77BNOK 2.43BNOK 3.42BNOK 3.38B 7.076.994.4241.5951.86
Year 92.4% NOK 53.03BNOK 2.49BNOK 3.51BNOK 3.46B 7.247.164.5344.3153.13
Year 102.5% NOK 54.36BNOK 2.55BNOK 3.60BNOK 3.55B 7.437.334.6447.1054.46

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.