Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Allstate (ALL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:54.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 266.72. Growth begins at 5.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 23.0%, net 17.2%, free cash flow 18.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (net, free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 329.97Model fair value (Earnings-based DCF); range USD 244.73 to USD 482.94
24%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Dividend discount model disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; value is more than 1.5x the Dividend discount model value.

1.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 95.58BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 10.39BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 14.11BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 4.29Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 252.15Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 266.72
21.3%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Net income over time

-USD 1.29B USD 2.66B USD 6.61B USD 10.55B USD 14.50B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Net income in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.5% USD 7.34B -4.5%
Base 3.5% USD 10.39B -1.1%
Bull 9.5% USD 14.50B 2.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 67.78BUSD 15.57BUSD 11.64BUSD 12.73B 46.8051.194.81129.88266.72
Year 13.5% USD 70.18BUSD 16.12BUSD 11.17BUSD 12.62B 44.9050.734.61170.16258.92
Year 24.1% USD 73.07BUSD 16.79BUSD 10.71BUSD 12.55B 43.0550.464.42208.78251.16
Year 34.4% USD 76.31BUSD 17.53BUSD 10.22BUSD 12.50B 41.0850.234.22245.65242.49
Year 44.1% USD 79.47BUSD 18.26BUSD 9.64BUSD 12.37B 38.7649.743.98280.42231.36
Year 53.8% USD 82.53BUSD 18.96BUSD 8.97BUSD 12.19B 36.0648.983.70312.78217.73
Year 63.6% USD 85.47BUSD 19.63BUSD 9.29BUSD 12.62B 37.3550.733.84346.29225.48
Year 73.3% USD 88.26BUSD 20.28BUSD 9.60BUSD 13.03B 38.5752.393.96380.90232.86
Year 83.0% USD 90.89BUSD 20.88BUSD 9.88BUSD 13.42B 39.7253.954.08416.53239.79
Year 92.7% USD 93.34BUSD 21.44BUSD 10.15BUSD 13.78B 40.7955.404.19453.13246.24
Year 102.4% USD 95.58BUSD 21.96BUSD 10.39BUSD 14.11B 41.7756.734.29490.60252.15

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.