Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Alm. Brand A/S (ALMB.CO)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 16:15.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in DKK and a share price of DKK 17.32. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 5.9% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 10.4%, net 7.5%, free cash flow 13.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Starting growth was capped from 5.9% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (4.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
DKK 7.42Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range DKK 6.67 to DKK 8.75
-57%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

0.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
DKK 17.64BRevenue in year 10 (base)
DKK 1.32BNet income in year 10 (base)
DKK 1.52BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
DKK 0.80Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
DKK 11.75Implied share price in year 10 (base), today DKK 17.32
6.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

DKK 0.00 DKK 2.45 DKK 4.90 DKK 7.35 DKK 9.80 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -1.3% DKK 9.08 1.4%
Base 4.7% DKK 9.40 1.7%
Bull 10.7% DKK 9.80 2.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– DKK 13.19BDKK 1.37BDKK 990.00MDKK 1.82B 0.721.330.607.9117.32
Year 14.7% DKK 13.80BDKK 1.43BDKK 1.04BDKK 1.76B 0.761.290.638.0416.10
Year 23.8% DKK 14.33BDKK 1.48BDKK 1.08BDKK 1.68B 0.791.230.658.1814.83
Year 32.9% DKK 14.74BDKK 1.53BDKK 1.11BDKK 1.58B 0.811.150.678.3213.52
Year 42.8% DKK 15.15BDKK 1.57BDKK 1.14BDKK 1.46B 0.831.070.698.4612.17
Year 52.7% DKK 15.57BDKK 1.61BDKK 1.17BDKK 1.34B 0.860.980.718.6110.76
Year 62.7% DKK 15.98BDKK 1.66BDKK 1.20BDKK 1.38B 0.881.010.738.7610.95
Year 72.6% DKK 16.40BDKK 1.70BDKK 1.23BDKK 1.41B 0.901.030.758.9111.14
Year 82.5% DKK 16.81BDKK 1.74BDKK 1.26BDKK 1.45B 0.921.060.779.0711.34
Year 92.5% DKK 17.23BDKK 1.78BDKK 1.29BDKK 1.49B 0.951.090.789.2311.54
Year 102.4% DKK 17.64BDKK 1.83BDKK 1.32BDKK 1.52B 0.971.110.809.4011.75

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.