Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Allianz SE (ALV.DE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 15:58.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 446.70. Growth begins at 4.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 13.3%, net 7.8%, free cash flow 22.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 341.85Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range EUR 285.63 to EUR 441.30
-23%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

6.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 184.70BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 14.44BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 42.24BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 22.73Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 673.25Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 446.70
25.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 85.52 EUR 171.04 EUR 256.56 EUR 342.07 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.6% EUR 274.85 5.1%
Base 2.5% EUR 304.63 6.2%
Bull 8.5% EUR 342.07 7.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 137.81BEUR 18.40BEUR 10.78BEUR 31.52B 28.6183.6816.96166.54446.70
Year 12.5% EUR 141.18BEUR 18.85BEUR 11.04BEUR 32.29B 29.3185.7317.37178.48461.86
Year 23.1% EUR 145.61BEUR 19.44BEUR 11.38BEUR 33.30B 30.2388.4217.92190.79475.70
Year 33.6% EUR 150.90BEUR 20.14BEUR 11.80BEUR 34.51B 31.3391.6318.57203.55488.29
Year 43.5% EUR 156.12BEUR 20.84BEUR 12.21BEUR 35.70B 32.4194.8019.21216.74499.48
Year 53.3% EUR 161.25BEUR 21.53BEUR 12.61BEUR 36.88B 33.4897.9219.84230.38509.14
Year 63.1% EUR 166.26BEUR 22.19BEUR 13.00BEUR 38.02B 34.52100.9620.46244.43540.21
Year 72.9% EUR 171.13BEUR 22.84BEUR 13.38BEUR 39.14B 35.53103.9221.06258.90572.18
Year 82.8% EUR 175.84BEUR 23.47BEUR 13.75BEUR 40.21B 36.51106.7821.64273.77605.04
Year 92.6% EUR 180.37BEUR 24.08BEUR 14.10BEUR 41.25B 37.45109.5322.20289.02638.74
Year 102.4% EUR 184.70BEUR 24.66BEUR 14.44BEUR 42.24B 38.35112.1622.73304.63673.25

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.