Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Amcor (AMCR)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 16:05.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 45.84. Growth begins at 5.5% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.6% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 12.5%, net 4.5%, free cash flow 4.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-0.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 37.92Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range USD 29.39 to USD 53.02
-17%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

7.6%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 32.57BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.63BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.71BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 3.50Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 65.74Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 45.84
8.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

USD 0.00 USD 1.23 USD 2.45 USD 3.68 USD 4.90 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 FY2026 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -6.5% USD 2.47 -0.7%
Base -0.5% USD 3.50 2.8%
Bull 5.5% USD 4.90 6.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 23.89BUSD 2.99BUSD 1.09BUSD 1.14B 2.342.452.6679.3245.84
Year 1-0.5% USD 23.78BUSD 3.01BUSD 1.10BUSD 1.15B 2.372.492.3779.3246.13
Year 22.3% USD 24.34BUSD 3.12BUSD 1.15BUSD 1.21B 2.482.602.4879.3247.72
Year 34.8% USD 25.51BUSD 3.32BUSD 1.23BUSD 1.29B 2.652.782.6579.3250.53
Year 44.5% USD 26.66BUSD 3.51BUSD 1.31BUSD 1.38B 2.822.962.8279.3253.32
Year 54.2% USD 27.78BUSD 3.70BUSD 1.39BUSD 1.46B 2.993.142.9979.3256.07
Year 63.9% USD 28.85BUSD 3.85BUSD 1.44BUSD 1.52B 3.103.273.1079.3258.24
Year 73.6% USD 29.88BUSD 3.98BUSD 1.49BUSD 1.57B 3.213.383.2179.3260.31
Year 83.2% USD 30.84BUSD 4.11BUSD 1.54BUSD 1.62B 3.323.493.3279.3262.26
Year 92.9% USD 31.74BUSD 4.23BUSD 1.59BUSD 1.67B 3.413.593.4179.3264.08
Year 102.6% USD 32.57BUSD 4.34BUSD 1.63BUSD 1.71B 3.503.693.5079.3265.74

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.