Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

A. O. Smith (AOS)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:41.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 66.57. Growth begins at 6.9% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 20.0%, net 13.0%, free cash flow 14.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (9.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 65.78Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 47.99 to USD 97.48
-1%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

7.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 6.33BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 823.42MNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 935.13MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.44Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 110.50Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 66.57
10.3%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 323.88M USD 647.76M USD 971.63M USD 1.30B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 3.7% USD 666.10M 1.7%
Base 9.7% USD 935.13M 5.2%
Bull 15.7% USD 1.30B 8.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 3.80BUSD 760.10MUSD 494.60MUSD 561.70M 3.634.131.4613.4066.57
Year 19.7% USD 4.17BUSD 833.98MUSD 542.68MUSD 616.30M 3.994.531.6115.7873.00
Year 28.1% USD 4.51BUSD 901.38MUSD 586.53MUSD 666.10M 4.314.891.7418.3578.85
Year 36.0% USD 4.78BUSD 955.23MUSD 621.57MUSD 705.90M 4.575.191.8421.0883.51
Year 45.5% USD 5.04BUSD 1.01BUSD 655.80MUSD 744.77M 4.825.471.9423.9588.06
Year 55.0% USD 5.30BUSD 1.06BUSD 688.84MUSD 782.30M 5.065.752.0426.9792.44
Year 64.6% USD 5.54BUSD 1.11BUSD 720.33MUSD 818.06M 5.296.012.1330.1396.67
Year 74.1% USD 5.77BUSD 1.15BUSD 749.89MUSD 851.62M 5.516.262.2233.42100.63
Year 83.6% USD 5.98BUSD 1.19BUSD 777.15MUSD 882.58M 5.716.482.3036.83104.29
Year 93.2% USD 6.16BUSD 1.23BUSD 801.77MUSD 910.54M 5.896.692.3740.35107.60
Year 102.7% USD 6.33BUSD 1.27BUSD 823.42MUSD 935.13M 6.056.872.4443.96110.50

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.