Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

AppLovin (APP)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 05 Nov 2026 20:48.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in USD and a share price of USD 355.46. Growth begins at 18.8% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 79.3%, net 60.8%, free cash flow 72.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (24.9%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 268.08Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 198.45 to USD 390.28
-25%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

5.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 16.49BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 5.91BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 8.69BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 591.20Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 355.46
7.2%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 2.94B USD 5.88B USD 8.83B USD 11.77B FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 18.9% USD 6.35B 4.8%
Base 24.9% USD 8.69B 8.2%
Bull 30.9% USD 11.77B 11.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– USD 5.48BUSD 4.35BUSD 3.33BUSD 3.97B 9.7511.61n/an/a355.46
Year 124.9% USD 6.84BUSD 5.15BUSD 3.82BUSD 4.69B 11.1713.71n/an/a402.37
Year 220.9% USD 8.28BUSD 5.89BUSD 4.21BUSD 5.34B 12.3015.63n/an/a437.54
Year 315.2% USD 9.54BUSD 6.40BUSD 4.37BUSD 5.78B 12.7816.91n/an/a448.91
Year 413.5% USD 10.82BUSD 6.83BUSD 4.42BUSD 6.13B 12.9217.94n/an/a448.06
Year 511.7% USD 12.09BUSD 7.14BUSD 4.33BUSD 6.38B 12.6718.65n/an/a433.59
Year 610.0% USD 13.30BUSD 7.85BUSD 4.76BUSD 7.01B 13.9320.50n/an/a476.74
Year 78.2% USD 14.38BUSD 8.49BUSD 5.15BUSD 7.59B 15.0722.18n/an/a515.79
Year 86.4% USD 15.31BUSD 9.03BUSD 5.49BUSD 8.07B 16.0423.61n/an/a548.94
Year 94.7% USD 16.02BUSD 9.45BUSD 5.74BUSD 8.45B 16.7924.71n/an/a574.53
Year 102.9% USD 16.49BUSD 9.73BUSD 5.91BUSD 8.69B 17.2825.42n/an/a591.20

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.