Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Axon Enterprise (AXON)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:07.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 382.56. Growth begins at 17.8% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 14.8%, net 6.2%, free cash flow 4.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 3.9 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (29.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 28.18Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 17.21 to USD 47.73
-93%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

-0.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 9.84BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 610.28MNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 407.33MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 357.13Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 382.56
1.3%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 125.97M USD 251.94M USD 377.91M USD 503.88M FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 25.6% USD 327.60M 9.4%
Base 29.5% USD 407.33M 11.8%
Bull 33.4% USD 503.88M 14.2%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– USD 3.22BUSD 477.46MUSD 199.55MUSD 133.19M 2.421.61n/an/a382.56
Year 129.5% USD 4.17BUSD 564.40MUSD 258.36MUSD 172.44M 3.132.09n/an/a426.48
Year 222.8% USD 5.12BUSD 627.12MUSD 317.30MUSD 211.78M 3.852.57n/an/a439.25
Year 314.5% USD 5.86BUSD 642.30MUSD 363.23MUSD 242.44M 4.402.94n/an/a406.08
Year 412.8% USD 6.61BUSD 639.21MUSD 409.70MUSD 273.46M 4.973.31n/an/a348.89
Year 511.1% USD 7.34BUSD 615.49MUSD 455.23MUSD 303.84M 5.523.68n/an/a266.39
Year 69.4% USD 8.04BUSD 673.52MUSD 498.15MUSD 332.49M 6.044.03n/an/a291.51
Year 77.7% USD 8.66BUSD 725.70MUSD 536.74MUSD 358.25M 6.504.34n/an/a314.09
Year 86.1% USD 9.18BUSD 769.71MUSD 569.29MUSD 379.97M 6.904.60n/an/a333.14
Year 94.4% USD 9.59BUSD 803.44MUSD 594.24MUSD 396.63M 7.204.81n/an/a347.74
Year 102.7% USD 9.84BUSD 825.13MUSD 610.28MUSD 407.33M 7.404.94n/an/a357.13

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.