Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Barclays PLC (BARC.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 17:29.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 4.19. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 8.5% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 21.4%, net 14.1%, free cash flow 33.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Starting growth was capped from 8.5% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (4.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 5.05Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range GBP 4.53 to GBP 5.96
20%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only.

9.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 68.04BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 9.60BNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 22.60BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.21Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 8.11Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 4.19
36.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

GBP 0.00 GBP 2.61 GBP 5.22 GBP 7.83 GBP 10.44 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -1.3% GBP 8.49 4.8%
Base 4.7% GBP 9.36 5.8%
Bull 10.7% GBP 10.44 7.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 50.83BGBP 10.89BGBP 7.17BGBP 16.88B 0.491.160.155.334.19
Year 14.7% GBP 53.23BGBP 11.41BGBP 7.51BGBP 17.68B 0.511.210.165.684.56
Year 23.8% GBP 55.26BGBP 11.85BGBP 7.80BGBP 18.35B 0.531.260.176.054.95
Year 32.9% GBP 56.85BGBP 12.19BGBP 8.02BGBP 18.88B 0.551.290.176.425.36
Year 42.8% GBP 58.44BGBP 12.53BGBP 8.25BGBP 19.41B 0.561.330.186.815.79
Year 52.7% GBP 60.04BGBP 12.87BGBP 8.47BGBP 19.94B 0.581.370.187.216.25
Year 62.7% GBP 61.64BGBP 13.21BGBP 8.70BGBP 20.47B 0.601.400.197.626.60
Year 72.6% GBP 63.24BGBP 13.56BGBP 8.92BGBP 21.00B 0.611.440.198.046.97
Year 82.5% GBP 64.84BGBP 13.90BGBP 9.15BGBP 21.53B 0.631.470.208.477.34
Year 92.5% GBP 66.44BGBP 14.24BGBP 9.38BGBP 22.07B 0.641.510.208.917.72
Year 102.4% GBP 68.04BGBP 14.58BGBP 9.60BGBP 22.60B 0.661.550.219.368.11

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.