Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA.MC)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:55.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 23.05. Growth begins at 5.8% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 47.4%, net 27.6%, free cash flow 61.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (6.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 24.19Model fair value (Earnings-based DCF); range EUR 17.93 to EUR 35.42
5%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Dividend discount model disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; value is more than 1.5x the Dividend discount model value.

6.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 63.56BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 17.56BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 38.83BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.11Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 35.33Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 23.05
30.6%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Net income over time

EUR 0 EUR 6.11B EUR 12.21B EUR 18.32B EUR 24.42B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Net income in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.7% EUR 12.45B 0.7%
Base 6.7% EUR 17.56B 4.2%
Bull 12.7% EUR 24.42B 7.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– EUR 41.98BEUR 19.92BEUR 11.60BEUR 25.65B 2.114.660.7310.4623.05
Year 16.7% EUR 44.80BEUR 21.26BEUR 12.38BEUR 27.37B 2.254.970.7811.9324.66
Year 26.1% EUR 47.52BEUR 22.55BEUR 13.13BEUR 29.03B 2.395.270.8313.4926.22
Year 35.0% EUR 49.90BEUR 23.68BEUR 13.79BEUR 30.49B 2.505.540.8715.1327.60
Year 44.6% EUR 52.21BEUR 24.77BEUR 14.43BEUR 31.90B 2.625.800.9116.8428.95
Year 54.3% EUR 54.44BEUR 25.83BEUR 15.04BEUR 33.26B 2.736.040.9518.6330.26
Year 63.9% EUR 56.56BEUR 26.84BEUR 15.63BEUR 34.56B 2.846.280.9820.4831.44
Year 73.5% EUR 58.55BEUR 27.78BEUR 16.18BEUR 35.77B 2.946.501.0222.4032.54
Year 83.1% EUR 60.39BEUR 28.66BEUR 16.69BEUR 36.90B 3.036.701.0524.3833.57
Year 92.8% EUR 62.07BEUR 29.45BEUR 17.15BEUR 37.92B 3.126.891.0826.4234.50
Year 102.4% EUR 63.56BEUR 30.16BEUR 17.56BEUR 38.83B 3.197.061.1128.5135.33

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.