Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Beazley PLC (BEZ.L)

Price update date unknown; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:49.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 13.09. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 116.4%, net 86.3%, free cash flow 90.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 12.70Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range GBP 10.65 to GBP 16.20
-3%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

8.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 1.00BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 493.61MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 551.25MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.18Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 26.56Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 13.09
6.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

GBP 0.00 GBP 3.38 GBP 6.76 GBP 10.14 GBP 13.52 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.6% GBP 10.71 6.4%
Base 3.4% GBP 11.96 7.6%
Bull 9.4% GBP 13.52 8.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 789.55MGBP 919.39MGBP 681.58MGBP 714.16M 1.081.130.255.7613.09
Year 13.4% GBP 816.64MGBP 868.92MGBP 644.42MGBP 680.78M 1.021.080.246.5514.81
Year 22.7% GBP 838.99MGBP 808.44MGBP 599.87MGBP 639.95M 0.951.010.227.2816.39
Year 32.1% GBP 856.51MGBP 739.31MGBP 548.91MGBP 592.61M 0.870.940.207.9517.81
Year 42.1% GBP 874.79MGBP 667.23MGBP 495.78MGBP 543.26M 0.790.860.188.5519.08
Year 52.2% GBP 893.84MGBP 591.99MGBP 440.32MGBP 491.74M 0.700.780.169.0920.18
Year 62.2% GBP 913.70MGBP 605.15MGBP 450.11MGBP 502.67M 0.710.800.169.6421.40
Year 72.3% GBP 934.41MGBP 618.87MGBP 460.31MGBP 514.06M 0.730.810.1710.2022.64
Year 82.3% GBP 956.01MGBP 633.17MGBP 470.95MGBP 525.94M 0.750.830.1710.7723.92
Year 92.4% GBP 978.53MGBP 648.08MGBP 482.04MGBP 538.33M 0.760.850.1811.3625.22
Year 102.4% GBP 1.00BGBP 663.64MGBP 493.61MGBP 551.25M 0.780.870.1811.9626.56

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.