Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Brown–Forman (BF.B)

Price updated 07 Nov 2026 00:03; TTM through 31 Jul 2026; TTM financials updated 07 Nov 2026 02:47.

Starts from TTM through 31 Jul 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 30.58. Growth begins at 2.6% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 27.8%, net 18.4%, free cash flow 23.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
USD 24.20Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 16.51 to USD 38.49
-21%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

3.6%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 5.02BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 924.29MNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 967.84MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 1.19Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 33.07Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 30.58
6.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 338.07M USD 676.13M USD 1.01B USD 1.35B FY2022 FY2024 FY2026 TTM through 31 Jul 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.4% USD 683.01M -3.0%
Base 2.6% USD 967.84M 0.5%
Bull 8.6% USD 1.35B 3.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Jul 2026– USD 3.92BUSD 1.09BUSD 721.00MUSD 925.00M 1.572.010.938.6430.58
Year 12.6% USD 4.02BUSD 1.12BUSD 739.96MUSD 914.43M 1.611.990.959.3030.40
Year 22.6% USD 4.12BUSD 1.14BUSD 759.23MUSD 902.43M 1.651.960.989.9830.19
Year 32.6% USD 4.23BUSD 1.17BUSD 778.81MUSD 888.97M 1.701.941.0010.6729.93
Year 42.6% USD 4.34BUSD 1.20BUSD 798.70MUSD 874.00M 1.741.901.0311.3829.63
Year 52.5% USD 4.45BUSD 1.23BUSD 818.89MUSD 857.47M 1.781.871.0512.1129.30
Year 62.5% USD 4.56BUSD 1.27BUSD 839.38MUSD 878.92M 1.831.911.0812.8630.03
Year 72.5% USD 4.67BUSD 1.30BUSD 860.17MUSD 900.69M 1.871.961.1113.6330.77
Year 82.5% USD 4.79BUSD 1.33BUSD 881.25MUSD 922.77M 1.922.011.1314.4131.53
Year 92.4% USD 4.90BUSD 1.36BUSD 902.63MUSD 945.15M 1.972.061.1615.2132.29
Year 102.4% USD 5.02BUSD 1.39BUSD 924.29MUSD 967.84M 2.012.111.1916.0433.07

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.