Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 31 Jul 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:12.

Starts from TTM through 31 Jul 2026 financials in CAD and a share price of CAD 240.22. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 18.0% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 18.6%, net 11.7%, free cash flow 38.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Starting growth was capped from 18.0% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
CAD 140.05Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range CAD 123.01 to CAD 170.20
-42%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

3.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
CAD 101.70BRevenue in year 10 (base)
CAD 11.95BNet income in year 10 (base)
CAD 39.51BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
CAD 9.52Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
CAD 254.94Implied share price in year 10 (base), today CAD 240.22
23.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

CAD 0.00 CAD 52.09 CAD 104.19 CAD 156.28 CAD 208.38 FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 31 Jul 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.0% CAD 176.11 3.6%
Base 3.0% CAD 190.42 4.4%
Bull 9.0% CAD 208.38 5.4%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Jul 2026– CAD 77.92BCAD 14.52BCAD 9.15BCAD 30.27B 13.0443.147.29123.31240.22
Year 13.0% CAD 80.26BCAD 14.95BCAD 9.43BCAD 31.18B 13.4344.437.51129.23236.01
Year 22.9% CAD 82.61BCAD 15.39BCAD 9.70BCAD 32.09B 13.8345.747.73135.32230.65
Year 32.9% CAD 84.98BCAD 15.83BCAD 9.98BCAD 33.01B 14.2247.057.95141.59224.08
Year 42.8% CAD 87.36BCAD 16.27BCAD 10.26BCAD 33.94B 14.6248.378.18148.04216.24
Year 52.7% CAD 89.75BCAD 16.72BCAD 10.54BCAD 34.87B 15.0249.698.40154.66207.07
Year 62.7% CAD 92.14BCAD 17.17BCAD 10.82BCAD 35.80B 15.4251.018.63161.46216.17
Year 72.6% CAD 94.53BCAD 17.61BCAD 11.10BCAD 36.73B 15.8252.348.85168.44225.51
Year 82.5% CAD 96.93BCAD 18.06BCAD 11.38BCAD 37.66B 16.2353.679.07175.59235.09
Year 92.5% CAD 99.32BCAD 18.50BCAD 11.67BCAD 38.59B 16.6354.999.30182.92244.90
Year 102.4% CAD 101.70BCAD 18.95BCAD 11.95BCAD 39.51B 17.0256.319.52190.42254.94

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.