Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

BNP Paribas S.A. (BNP.PA)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:17.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 93.09. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 5.4% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 16.9%, net 8.5%, free cash flow 30.3% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Starting growth was capped from 5.4% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (4.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 114.30Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range EUR 101.64 to EUR 136.70
23%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only.

9.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 192.05BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 16.26BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 58.12BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 3.43Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 195.37Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 93.09
55.8%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 59.49 EUR 118.97 EUR 178.46 EUR 237.95 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -1.7% EUR 189.98 5.4%
Base 4.3% EUR 211.24 6.5%
Bull 10.3% EUR 237.95 7.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 144.38BEUR 24.34BEUR 12.22BEUR 43.70B 10.9239.032.58112.1293.09
Year 14.3% EUR 150.56BEUR 25.38BEUR 12.75BEUR 45.57B 11.3940.702.69120.81102.59
Year 23.6% EUR 155.99BEUR 26.30BEUR 13.21BEUR 47.21B 11.8042.172.79129.82112.70
Year 32.9% EUR 160.47BEUR 27.05BEUR 13.59BEUR 48.56B 12.1443.382.87139.08123.37
Year 42.8% EUR 164.96BEUR 27.81BEUR 13.97BEUR 49.92B 12.4844.592.95148.61134.64
Year 52.7% EUR 169.47BEUR 28.57BEUR 14.35BEUR 51.29B 12.8245.813.03158.40146.50
Year 62.7% EUR 173.99BEUR 29.33BEUR 14.73BEUR 52.65B 13.1647.033.11168.44155.79
Year 72.6% EUR 178.51BEUR 30.10BEUR 15.11BEUR 54.02B 13.5048.263.19178.75165.32
Year 82.5% EUR 183.03BEUR 30.86BEUR 15.50BEUR 55.39B 13.8449.483.27189.32175.10
Year 92.5% EUR 187.55BEUR 31.62BEUR 15.88BEUR 56.76B 14.1850.703.35200.15185.12
Year 102.4% EUR 192.05BEUR 32.38BEUR 16.26BEUR 58.12B 14.5351.923.43211.24195.37

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.