Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 31 Jul 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:11.

Starts from TTM through 31 Jul 2026 financials in CAD and a share price of CAD 129.16. Growth begins at 14.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 20.1%, net 14.1%, free cash flow 8.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
CAD 89.15Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range CAD 77.67 to CAD 109.45
-31%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

7.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
CAD 160.51BRevenue in year 10 (base)
CAD 22.61BNet income in year 10 (base)
CAD 14.28BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
CAD 10.99Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
CAD 179.12Implied share price in year 10 (base), today CAD 129.16
9.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

CAD 0.00 CAD 36.63 CAD 73.26 CAD 109.89 CAD 146.53 FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 31 Jul 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 8.7% CAD 119.17 5.1%
Base 14.7% CAD 131.36 6.1%
Bull 20.7% CAD 146.53 7.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Jul 2026– CAD 71.07BCAD 14.26BCAD 10.01BCAD 6.32B 8.165.164.8772.72129.16
Year 114.7% CAD 81.53BCAD 16.36BCAD 11.48BCAD 7.25B 9.375.925.5876.50129.57
Year 213.4% CAD 92.41BCAD 18.54BCAD 13.02BCAD 8.22B 10.626.716.3380.79130.16
Year 312.0% CAD 103.48BCAD 20.77BCAD 14.57BCAD 9.21B 11.897.517.0985.59130.83
Year 410.6% CAD 114.47BCAD 22.97BCAD 16.12BCAD 10.18B 13.158.317.8490.90131.45
Year 59.2% CAD 125.05BCAD 25.09BCAD 17.61BCAD 11.12B 14.379.078.5696.71131.86
Year 67.9% CAD 134.90BCAD 27.07BCAD 19.00BCAD 12.00B 15.509.799.24102.96140.40
Year 76.5% CAD 143.68BCAD 28.83BCAD 20.24BCAD 12.78B 16.5110.439.84109.63149.49
Year 85.1% CAD 151.06BCAD 30.31BCAD 21.28BCAD 13.44B 17.3510.9610.34116.64159.04
Year 93.8% CAD 156.75BCAD 31.46BCAD 22.08BCAD 13.94B 18.0111.3710.73123.92168.96
Year 102.4% CAD 160.51BCAD 32.21BCAD 22.61BCAD 14.28B 18.4411.6510.99131.36179.12

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.