Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Bunzl plc (BNZL.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:59.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 28.56. Growth begins at 3.6% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 9.8%, net 3.9%, free cash flow 6.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.3%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 27.10Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range GBP 18.34 to GBP 42.67
-5%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

5.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 15.87BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 615.19MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.03BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.00Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 37.77Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 28.56
11.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

GBP 0 GBP 358.46M GBP 716.93M GBP 1.08B GBP 1.43B FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.7% GBP 722.35M -0.6%
Base 2.3% GBP 1.03B 3.0%
Bull 8.3% GBP 1.43B 6.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 11.85BGBP 1.16BGBP 459.20MGBP 765.10M 1.412.350.748.5628.56
Year 12.3% GBP 12.12BGBP 1.19BGBP 469.90MGBP 782.93M 1.442.400.769.2429.15
Year 22.9% GBP 12.48BGBP 1.22BGBP 483.62MGBP 805.78M 1.482.470.789.9429.92
Year 33.4% GBP 12.90BGBP 1.26BGBP 500.10MGBP 833.24M 1.532.560.8110.6630.86
Year 43.3% GBP 13.33BGBP 1.31BGBP 516.64MGBP 860.80M 1.582.640.8411.4131.80
Year 53.2% GBP 13.75BGBP 1.35BGBP 533.20MGBP 888.39M 1.642.730.8612.1832.74
Year 63.1% GBP 14.18BGBP 1.39BGBP 549.75MGBP 915.97M 1.692.810.8912.9833.75
Year 73.0% GBP 14.61BGBP 1.43BGBP 566.26MGBP 943.48M 1.742.890.9213.8034.77
Year 82.9% GBP 15.03BGBP 1.47BGBP 582.69MGBP 970.86M 1.792.980.9414.6535.78
Year 92.8% GBP 15.45BGBP 1.51BGBP 599.02MGBP 998.05M 1.843.060.9715.5236.78
Year 102.7% GBP 15.87BGBP 1.55BGBP 615.19MGBP 1.03B 1.893.141.0016.4137.77

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.