Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

BT Group plc (BT-A.L)

Price updated 07 Nov 2026 00:03; TTM through 31 Mar 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 15:55.

Starts from TTM through 31 Mar 2026 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 2.17. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 41.6%, net 5.5%, free cash flow 6.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 2.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (0.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 1.46Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range GBP 1.17 to GBP 1.94
-33%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

4.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 36.47BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 2.00BNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 2.32BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.15Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 2.03Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 2.17
10.6%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

GBP 0.00 GBP 0.04 GBP 0.09 GBP 0.13 GBP 0.17 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 FY2026 TTM through 31 Mar 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.0% GBP 0.13 0.6%
Base 0.1% GBP 0.15 2.2%
Bull 2.1% GBP 0.17 3.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Mar 2026– GBP 29.47BGBP 12.25BGBP 1.62BGBP 1.87B 0.160.190.121.252.17
Year 10.1% GBP 29.49BGBP 12.26BGBP 1.62BGBP 1.88B 0.160.190.121.292.07
Year 21.1% GBP 29.81BGBP 12.40BGBP 1.63BGBP 1.90B 0.160.190.121.331.98
Year 32.2% GBP 30.47BGBP 12.67BGBP 1.67BGBP 1.94B 0.170.190.121.371.91
Year 42.3% GBP 31.17BGBP 12.96BGBP 1.71BGBP 1.98B 0.170.200.131.411.85
Year 52.4% GBP 31.92BGBP 13.27BGBP 1.75BGBP 2.03B 0.170.200.131.461.77
Year 62.5% GBP 32.72BGBP 13.60BGBP 1.79BGBP 2.08B 0.180.210.131.501.82
Year 72.6% GBP 33.57BGBP 13.96BGBP 1.84BGBP 2.13B 0.180.210.141.551.87
Year 82.7% GBP 34.47BGBP 14.33BGBP 1.89BGBP 2.19B 0.190.220.141.601.92
Year 92.8% GBP 35.44BGBP 14.73BGBP 1.94BGBP 2.25B 0.190.220.141.641.97
Year 102.9% GBP 36.47BGBP 15.16BGBP 2.00BGBP 2.32B 0.200.230.151.692.03

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.