Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

BW LPG Limited (BWLPG.OL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:55.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in NOK and a share price of NOK 208.40. Growth begins at 6.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.5% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 23.4%, net 12.6%, free cash flow 17.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-20.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
NOK 224.78Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range NOK 166.95 to NOK 321.41
8%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

2.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
NOK 33.53BRevenue in year 10 (base)
NOK 4.78BNet income in year 10 (base)
NOK 5.27BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
NOK 2.95Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
NOK 242.39Implied share price in year 10 (base), today NOK 208.40
16.6%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

NOK 0 NOK 1.88B NOK 3.75B NOK 5.63B NOK 7.50B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -26.0% NOK 3.63B -4.8%
Base -20.0% NOK 5.27B -1.2%
Bull -14.0% NOK 7.50B 2.4%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– NOK 33.19BNOK 7.78BNOK 4.19BNOK 5.94B 27.6339.112.59118.91208.40
Year 1-20.0% NOK 26.55BNOK 6.35BNOK 3.44BNOK 4.63B 22.6730.532.13139.46171.70
Year 2-7.1% NOK 24.66BNOK 6.02BNOK 3.28BNOK 4.20B 21.5927.642.02159.02164.11
Year 35.3% NOK 25.97BNOK 6.48BNOK 3.54BNOK 4.31B 23.3028.372.18180.14177.81
Year 44.9% NOK 27.26BNOK 6.93BNOK 3.80BNOK 4.40B 25.0328.982.35202.82191.80
Year 54.5% NOK 28.49BNOK 7.39BNOK 4.07BNOK 4.47B 26.7829.472.51227.09205.97
Year 64.1% NOK 29.66BNOK 7.69BNOK 4.23BNOK 4.66B 27.8830.692.61252.36214.46
Year 73.7% NOK 30.77BNOK 7.98BNOK 4.39BNOK 4.83B 28.9231.832.71278.57222.43
Year 83.3% NOK 31.79BNOK 8.24BNOK 4.54BNOK 4.99B 29.8832.882.80305.64229.80
Year 92.9% NOK 32.71BNOK 8.48BNOK 4.67BNOK 5.14B 30.7433.842.88333.50236.47
Year 102.5% NOK 33.53BNOK 8.69BNOK 4.78BNOK 5.27B 31.5134.682.95362.06242.39

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.