Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Bellway p.l.c. (BWY.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; Fiscal year 2026; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:04.

Starts from Fiscal year 2026 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 23.01. Growth begins at 4.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 3.1% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 10.3%, net 6.1%, free cash flow 10.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (5.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 40.82Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range GBP 31.10 to GBP 57.60
77%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

7.8%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 4.59BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 280.81MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 352.05MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.04Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 39.87Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 23.01
13.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-GBP 66.90M GBP 72.51M GBP 211.92M GBP 351.33M GBP 490.74M FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 Fiscal year 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -0.3% GBP 249.07M -2.9%
Base 5.7% GBP 352.05M 0.5%
Bull 11.7% GBP 490.74M 3.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2026– GBP 3.16BGBP 325.00MGBP 193.40MGBP 334.00M 1.652.840.7129.9623.01
Year 15.7% GBP 3.34BGBP 343.59MGBP 204.46MGBP 333.75M 1.742.840.7530.9525.27
Year 24.8% GBP 3.50BGBP 360.07MGBP 214.27MGBP 329.48M 1.822.800.7931.9827.47
Year 33.8% GBP 3.64BGBP 373.67MGBP 222.36MGBP 320.87M 1.892.730.8233.0529.53
Year 43.7% GBP 3.77BGBP 387.42MGBP 230.55MGBP 310.86M 1.962.650.8534.1631.68
Year 53.6% GBP 3.90BGBP 401.30MGBP 238.81MGBP 299.40M 2.032.550.8835.3133.91
Year 63.5% GBP 4.04BGBP 415.30MGBP 247.13MGBP 309.84M 2.102.640.9136.5135.09
Year 73.4% GBP 4.18BGBP 429.37MGBP 255.51MGBP 320.34M 2.172.730.9437.7436.28
Year 83.3% GBP 4.32BGBP 443.51MGBP 263.93MGBP 330.89M 2.252.820.9739.0137.48
Year 93.2% GBP 4.45BGBP 457.69MGBP 272.36MGBP 341.47M 2.322.911.0140.3238.68
Year 103.1% GBP 4.59BGBP 471.88MGBP 280.81MGBP 352.05M 2.393.001.0441.6739.87

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.