Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

CaixaBank, S.A. (CABK.MC)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 15:56.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 11.61. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 9.4% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 35.2%, net 22.6%, free cash flow 161.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Starting growth was capped from 9.4% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (11.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 9.81Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range EUR 8.27 to EUR 12.53
-16%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

8.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 38.10BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 8.62BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 38.11BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 0.67Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 19.57Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 11.61
46.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 2.94 EUR 5.88 EUR 8.82 EUR 11.76 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 5.1% EUR 9.40 5.6%
Base 11.1% EUR 10.45 6.7%
Bull 17.1% EUR 11.76 7.9%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 26.04BEUR 9.18BEUR 5.89BEUR 41.97B 0.845.970.465.4811.61
Year 111.1% EUR 28.92BEUR 10.19BEUR 6.54BEUR 43.08B 0.936.130.515.9012.22
Year 27.0% EUR 30.95BEUR 10.91BEUR 7.00BEUR 42.32B 1.006.020.546.3512.84
Year 32.9% EUR 31.83BEUR 11.22BEUR 7.20BEUR 39.63B 1.025.640.566.8213.45
Year 42.8% EUR 32.73BEUR 11.53BEUR 7.40BEUR 36.74B 1.055.220.577.3014.03
Year 52.7% EUR 33.62BEUR 11.85BEUR 7.61BEUR 33.63B 1.084.780.597.7914.59
Year 62.7% EUR 34.52BEUR 12.17BEUR 7.81BEUR 34.53B 1.114.910.618.2915.54
Year 72.6% EUR 35.41BEUR 12.48BEUR 8.01BEUR 35.43B 1.145.040.628.8116.51
Year 82.5% EUR 36.31BEUR 12.80BEUR 8.22BEUR 36.32B 1.175.160.649.3417.51
Year 92.5% EUR 37.21BEUR 13.11BEUR 8.42BEUR 37.22B 1.205.290.659.8918.53
Year 102.4% EUR 38.10BEUR 13.43BEUR 8.62BEUR 38.11B 1.235.420.6710.4519.57

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.