Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Cardinal Health (CAH)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:55; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 13:02.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 267.82. Growth begins at 6.9% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 1.4%, net 0.7%, free cash flow 1.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (6.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 195.47Model fair value (Normalised free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 141.21 to USD 289.88
-27%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; free cash flow is more than 2x earnings, so the cash-flow value may be overstated.

1.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 406.29BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.94BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 7.23BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.34Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 282.10Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 267.82
11.4%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 2.51B USD 5.02B USD 7.53B USD 10.04B FY2022 FY2024 FY2026 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.0% USD 5.14B 1.3%
Base 6.1% USD 7.23B 4.8%
Bull 12.1% USD 10.04B 8.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– USD 254.25BUSD 3.48BUSD 1.71BUSD 4.53B 7.2319.092.07n/a267.82
Year 16.1% USD 269.63BUSD 3.56BUSD 1.71BUSD 4.80B 7.2220.252.07n/a263.76
Year 26.3% USD 286.53BUSD 3.64BUSD 1.71BUSD 5.10B 7.1921.522.06n/a259.24
Year 36.0% USD 303.82BUSD 3.71BUSD 1.69BUSD 5.41B 7.1222.822.04n/a253.06
Year 45.6% USD 320.79BUSD 3.76BUSD 1.66BUSD 5.71B 6.9924.092.00n/a244.70
Year 55.1% USD 337.27BUSD 3.79BUSD 1.61BUSD 6.00B 6.7825.331.94n/a234.18
Year 64.7% USD 353.10BUSD 3.97BUSD 1.68BUSD 6.28B 7.1026.522.03n/a245.17
Year 74.2% USD 368.08BUSD 4.13BUSD 1.75BUSD 6.55B 7.4027.642.12n/a255.57
Year 83.8% USD 382.05BUSD 4.29BUSD 1.82BUSD 6.80B 7.6828.692.20n/a265.27
Year 93.3% USD 394.84BUSD 4.44BUSD 1.88BUSD 7.03B 7.9429.652.27n/a274.15
Year 102.9% USD 406.29BUSD 4.56BUSD 1.94BUSD 7.23B 8.1730.512.34n/a282.10

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.