Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

CF Industries (CF)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 16:05.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 117.79. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.6% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 42.0%, net 27.5%, free cash flow 26.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-10.9%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 115.14Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 87.81 to USD 159.24
-2%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

0.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 8.15BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 2.00BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 2.08BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.34Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 107.20Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 117.79
11.6%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 848.25M USD 1.70B USD 2.54B USD 3.39B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -16.9% USD 1.44B -3.6%
Base -10.9% USD 2.08B 0.0%
Bull -4.9% USD 2.94B 3.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 7.94BUSD 3.34BUSD 2.18BUSD 2.08B 14.3913.732.5658.70117.79
Year 1-10.9% USD 7.08BUSD 3.06BUSD 1.90BUSD 1.84B 12.5512.162.2369.02102.56
Year 2-4.4% USD 6.76BUSD 3.00BUSD 1.78BUSD 1.75B 11.7311.562.0978.6695.75
Year 32.1% USD 6.91BUSD 3.15BUSD 1.77BUSD 1.78B 11.7011.742.0888.2895.46
Year 42.2% USD 7.06BUSD 3.30BUSD 1.77BUSD 1.81B 11.6811.922.0897.8895.18
Year 52.3% USD 7.22BUSD 3.46BUSD 1.77BUSD 1.84B 11.6612.122.07107.4794.90
Year 62.3% USD 7.39BUSD 3.54BUSD 1.81BUSD 1.88B 11.9312.412.12117.2897.12
Year 72.4% USD 7.57BUSD 3.62BUSD 1.85BUSD 1.93B 12.2212.702.17127.3399.45
Year 82.5% USD 7.75BUSD 3.71BUSD 1.90BUSD 1.97B 12.5213.022.23137.63101.90
Year 92.5% USD 7.95BUSD 3.81BUSD 1.95BUSD 2.02B 12.8413.352.28148.18104.48
Year 102.6% USD 8.15BUSD 3.90BUSD 2.00BUSD 2.08B 13.1713.692.34159.02107.20

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.