Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Cincinnati Financial (CINF)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:41.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 185.35. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 26.4%, net 20.1%, free cash flow 23.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-5.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 198.54Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range USD 168.05 to USD 250.82
7%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

10.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 14.83BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 2.98BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 3.44BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 3.97Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 453.96Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 185.35
12.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

USD 0.00 USD 70.26 USD 140.51 USD 210.77 USD 281.03 FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -11.0% USD 212.12 7.4%
Base -5.0% USD 242.58 8.8%
Bull 1.0% USD 281.03 10.4%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 13.28BUSD 3.51BUSD 2.66BUSD 3.08B 17.1819.863.55104.33185.35
Year 1-5.0% USD 12.61BUSD 3.33BUSD 2.53BUSD 2.93B 16.3118.863.37117.27210.56
Year 2-1.5% USD 12.42BUSD 3.28BUSD 2.49BUSD 2.88B 16.0718.583.32130.02235.91
Year 32.1% USD 12.68BUSD 3.35BUSD 2.54BUSD 2.94B 16.4018.973.39143.03262.23
Year 42.1% USD 12.95BUSD 3.42BUSD 2.60BUSD 3.00B 16.7519.373.47156.32289.56
Year 52.2% USD 13.23BUSD 3.50BUSD 2.66BUSD 3.07B 17.1219.793.54169.89317.94
Year 62.2% USD 13.52BUSD 3.57BUSD 2.71BUSD 3.14B 17.5020.233.62183.77343.91
Year 72.3% USD 13.83BUSD 3.66BUSD 2.78BUSD 3.21B 17.9020.693.70197.97370.48
Year 82.3% USD 14.15BUSD 3.74BUSD 2.84BUSD 3.28B 18.3121.173.79212.49397.65
Year 92.4% USD 14.48BUSD 3.83BUSD 2.91BUSD 3.36B 18.7421.673.88227.36425.47
Year 102.4% USD 14.83BUSD 3.92BUSD 2.98BUSD 3.44B 19.1922.193.97242.58453.96

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.