Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Canadian Tire Corporation, Limited (CTC-A.TO)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 04 Nov 2026 18:39.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in CAD and a share price of CAD 205.05. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 3.6% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 3.0% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 13.0%, net 4.1%, free cash flow 3.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Starting growth was capped from 3.6% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
CAD 90.79Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range CAD 71.56 to CAD 123.28
-56%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

1.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
CAD 22.22BRevenue in year 10 (base)
CAD 912.79MNet income in year 10 (base)
CAD 809.98MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
CAD 9.24Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
CAD 160.41Implied share price in year 10 (base), today CAD 205.05
7.5%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

CAD 0.00 CAD 3.22 CAD 6.45 CAD 9.67 CAD 12.89 FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.0% CAD 6.53 -0.5%
Base 3.0% CAD 9.24 3.0%
Bull 9.0% CAD 12.89 6.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– CAD 16.53BCAD 2.14BCAD 679.20MCAD 602.70M 12.9211.466.88113.73205.05
Year 13.0% CAD 17.03BCAD 2.21BCAD 699.58MCAD 620.78M 13.3111.817.08119.96193.55
Year 23.0% CAD 17.54BCAD 2.27BCAD 720.56MCAD 639.40M 13.7012.167.29126.37181.17
Year 33.0% CAD 18.06BCAD 2.34BCAD 742.18MCAD 658.59M 14.1212.537.51132.97167.88
Year 43.0% CAD 18.61BCAD 2.41BCAD 764.45MCAD 678.34M 14.5412.907.74139.77153.63
Year 53.0% CAD 19.16BCAD 2.48BCAD 787.38MCAD 698.69M 14.9813.297.97146.78138.37
Year 63.0% CAD 19.74BCAD 2.56BCAD 811.00MCAD 719.66M 15.4213.698.21153.99142.52
Year 73.0% CAD 20.33BCAD 2.63BCAD 835.33MCAD 741.24M 15.8914.108.46161.42146.79
Year 83.0% CAD 20.94BCAD 2.71BCAD 860.39MCAD 763.48M 16.3614.528.71169.08151.20
Year 93.0% CAD 21.57BCAD 2.79BCAD 886.20MCAD 786.39M 16.8514.968.97176.96155.73
Year 103.0% CAD 22.22BCAD 2.88BCAD 912.79MCAD 809.98M 17.3615.419.24185.08160.41

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.