Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

CVS Health (CVS)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 16:05.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 81.33. Growth begins at 4.9% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 4.7%, net 2.6%, free cash flow 3.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 3.4 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (net), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.9%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 92.89Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 58.11 to USD 153.38
14%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

3.7%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 599.00BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 11.87BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 22.17BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.85Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 90.47Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 81.33
21.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 6.84B USD 13.67B USD 20.51B USD 27.35B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -0.5% USD 17.88B 1.4%
Base 2.9% USD 22.17B 3.6%
Bull 6.3% USD 27.35B 5.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 420.61BUSD 19.70BUSD 11.05BUSD 15.57B 8.5612.062.6562.3581.33
Year 12.9% USD 432.90BUSD 20.28BUSD 10.82BUSD 16.02B 8.3812.412.5968.1480.16
Year 23.8% USD 449.26BUSD 21.05BUSD 10.65BUSD 16.63B 8.2512.882.5573.8379.45
Year 34.4% USD 469.14BUSD 21.98BUSD 10.51BUSD 17.36B 8.1413.452.5279.4578.99
Year 44.2% USD 488.88BUSD 22.90BUSD 10.32BUSD 18.09B 8.0014.022.4884.9778.11
Year 54.0% USD 508.38BUSD 23.81BUSD 10.08BUSD 18.82B 7.8114.572.4290.3676.78
Year 63.8% USD 527.55BUSD 24.71BUSD 10.46BUSD 19.52B 8.1015.122.5195.9579.68
Year 73.6% USD 546.29BUSD 25.59BUSD 10.83BUSD 20.22B 8.3915.662.60101.7482.51
Year 83.3% USD 564.52BUSD 26.44BUSD 11.19BUSD 20.89B 8.6716.182.68107.7285.26
Year 93.1% USD 582.12BUSD 27.27BUSD 11.54BUSD 21.54B 8.9416.692.77113.8987.92
Year 102.9% USD 599.00BUSD 28.06BUSD 11.87BUSD 22.17B 9.2017.172.85120.2490.47

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.