Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Delta Air Lines (DAL)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:56.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 85.36. Growth begins at 8.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 10.3%, net 4.6%, free cash flow 7.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 82.93Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 55.70 to USD 131.41
-3%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

6.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 113.51BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 5.56BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 4.42BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 1.33Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 143.11Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 85.36
7.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-USD 3.00M USD 1.53B USD 3.07B USD 4.61B USD 6.14B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.0% USD 3.13B -5.8%
Base 3.0% USD 4.42B -2.5%
Bull 9.0% USD 6.14B 0.8%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 71.80BUSD 7.38BUSD 3.29BUSD 5.68B 4.998.620.7934.1685.36
Year 13.0% USD 73.93BUSD 7.89BUSD 3.43BUSD 5.25B 5.217.970.8338.5588.96
Year 25.3% USD 77.84BUSD 8.62BUSD 3.66BUSD 4.91B 5.567.440.8843.2394.78
Year 37.0% USD 83.27BUSD 9.56BUSD 3.97BUSD 4.58B 6.036.950.9548.30102.59
Year 46.4% USD 88.57BUSD 10.52BUSD 4.28BUSD 4.16B 6.496.311.0353.76110.39
Year 55.8% USD 93.67BUSD 11.51BUSD 4.58BUSD 3.65B 6.965.531.1059.62118.08
Year 65.1% USD 98.48BUSD 12.10BUSD 4.82BUSD 3.83B 7.315.821.1665.77124.16
Year 74.5% USD 102.95BUSD 12.65BUSD 5.04BUSD 4.01B 7.656.081.2172.21129.79
Year 83.9% USD 106.99BUSD 13.14BUSD 5.24BUSD 4.16B 7.956.321.2678.90134.88
Year 93.3% USD 110.53BUSD 13.58BUSD 5.41BUSD 4.30B 8.216.531.3085.80139.34
Year 102.7% USD 113.51BUSD 13.95BUSD 5.56BUSD 4.42B 8.436.701.3392.90143.11

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.