Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Deutsche Bank AG (DBK.DE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 13:12.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 32.32. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 9.7% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 16.0%, net 11.4%, free cash flow 76.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Free cash flow is more than twice net income, which is often a one-off (working capital or timing). Lean on the net income line.
For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Starting growth was capped from 9.7% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (4.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 35.06Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range EUR 31.72 to EUR 40.98
8%Fair value vs today's price
MediumModel confidence
50%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only.

8.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 81.17BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 9.24BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 36.66BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 0.88Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 62.36Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 32.32
56.8%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 20.47 EUR 40.94 EUR 61.40 EUR 81.87 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -1.6% EUR 65.67 5.3%
Base 4.4% EUR 72.85 6.4%
Bull 10.4% EUR 81.87 7.6%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 60.89BEUR 9.72BEUR 6.93BEUR 46.62B 3.4723.330.6639.3632.32
Year 14.4% EUR 63.59BEUR 10.16BEUR 7.24BEUR 44.70B 3.6222.370.6942.3035.02
Year 23.7% EUR 65.93BEUR 10.53BEUR 7.51BEUR 42.20B 3.7621.120.7145.3437.86
Year 32.9% EUR 67.82BEUR 10.83BEUR 7.72BEUR 39.15B 3.8619.600.7348.4740.81
Year 42.8% EUR 69.72BEUR 11.14BEUR 7.94BEUR 35.87B 3.9717.950.7551.6943.88
Year 52.7% EUR 71.63BEUR 11.44BEUR 8.15BEUR 32.35B 4.0816.190.7755.0047.07
Year 62.7% EUR 73.54BEUR 11.75BEUR 8.37BEUR 33.22B 4.1916.620.7958.3949.98
Year 72.6% EUR 75.45BEUR 12.05BEUR 8.59BEUR 34.08B 4.3017.060.8261.8752.96
Year 82.5% EUR 77.36BEUR 12.36BEUR 8.81BEUR 34.94B 4.4117.490.8465.4556.02
Year 92.5% EUR 79.27BEUR 12.66BEUR 9.02BEUR 35.81B 4.5217.920.8669.1059.15
Year 102.4% EUR 81.17BEUR 12.97BEUR 9.24BEUR 36.66B 4.6218.350.8872.8562.36

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.