Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

DFDS A/S (DFDS.CO)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 16:05.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in DKK and a share price of DKK 157.30. Growth begins at 2.9% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 13.0%, net -0.1%, free cash flow 6.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 3.8 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

The company is loss-making today, so the projection keeps the loss margin. It does not model a path to profit.
Margins drift toward their 4-year average over 5 years (EBITDA), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-0.5%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
DKK 290.93Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range DKK 150.90 to DKK 540.09
85%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: EV/EBITDA (12x) disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data.

4.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
DKK 39.53BRevenue in year 10 (base)
-DKK 26.33MNet income in year 10 (base)
DKK 2.65BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
DKK 239.08Implied share price in year 10 (base), today DKK 157.30
30.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

DKK 0 DKK 834.76M DKK 1.67B DKK 2.50B DKK 3.34B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -4.2% DKK 2.09B -0.1%
Base -0.5% DKK 2.65B 2.3%
Bull 3.3% DKK 3.34B 4.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– DKK 31.54BDKK 4.10B-DKK 21.00MDKK 2.11B -0.3938.80n/an/a157.30
Year 1-0.5% DKK 31.39BDKK 3.87B-DKK 20.91MDKK 2.10B -0.3838.63n/an/a163.24
Year 21.2% DKK 31.77BDKK 3.70B-DKK 21.16MDKK 2.13B -0.3939.09n/an/a171.94
Year 32.8% DKK 32.67BDKK 3.58B-DKK 21.76MDKK 2.19B -0.4040.20n/an/a183.75
Year 42.8% DKK 33.60BDKK 3.45B-DKK 22.37MDKK 2.25B -0.4141.34n/an/a196.05
Year 52.8% DKK 34.54BDKK 3.31B-DKK 23.00MDKK 2.31B -0.4242.49n/an/a208.85
Year 62.8% DKK 35.50BDKK 3.40B-DKK 23.64MDKK 2.38B -0.4343.68n/an/a214.66
Year 72.8% DKK 36.48BDKK 3.49B-DKK 24.29MDKK 2.44B -0.4544.88n/an/a220.58
Year 82.7% DKK 37.48BDKK 3.59B-DKK 24.96MDKK 2.51B -0.4646.11n/an/a226.63
Year 92.7% DKK 38.50BDKK 3.69B-DKK 25.63MDKK 2.58B -0.4747.37n/an/a232.79
Year 102.7% DKK 39.53BDKK 3.78B-DKK 26.33MDKK 2.65B -0.4848.64n/an/a239.08

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.