Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

D. R. Horton (DHI)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2026; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 14:23.

Starts from Fiscal year 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 157.63. Growth begins at 3.0% a year (capped from 5.1% because the latest annual revenue declined) and fades to 3.0% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 12.2%, net 8.7%, free cash flow 10.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Starting growth was capped from 5.1% to 3.0% because the latest annual revenue declined.
Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (6.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 140.66Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 102.98 to USD 205.25
-11%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

4.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 46.86BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 4.10BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 3.73BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 2.55Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 217.54Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 157.63
8.3%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 1.30B USD 2.60B USD 3.90B USD 5.21B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 Fiscal year 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.8% USD 2.64B -2.3%
Base 6.8% USD 3.73B 1.1%
Bull 12.8% USD 5.21B 4.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2026– USD 33.04BUSD 4.02BUSD 2.89BUSD 3.35B 10.1111.711.8080.86157.63
Year 16.8% USD 35.27BUSD 4.29BUSD 3.08BUSD 3.42B 10.7911.971.9289.73167.36
Year 24.9% USD 36.99BUSD 4.50BUSD 3.23BUSD 3.43B 11.3211.992.0199.04174.57
Year 33.0% USD 38.10BUSD 4.64BUSD 3.33BUSD 3.36B 11.6611.772.07108.63178.83
Year 43.0% USD 39.25BUSD 4.78BUSD 3.43BUSD 3.30B 12.0111.532.13118.50183.19
Year 53.0% USD 40.42BUSD 4.92BUSD 3.53BUSD 3.22B 12.3711.272.20128.67187.65
Year 63.0% USD 41.64BUSD 5.07BUSD 3.64BUSD 3.32B 12.7411.602.26139.15193.28
Year 73.0% USD 42.89BUSD 5.22BUSD 3.75BUSD 3.42B 13.1211.952.33149.94199.08
Year 83.0% USD 44.17BUSD 5.38BUSD 3.86BUSD 3.52B 13.5112.312.40161.05205.05
Year 93.0% USD 45.50BUSD 5.54BUSD 3.98BUSD 3.62B 13.9212.682.47172.50211.20
Year 103.0% USD 46.86BUSD 5.70BUSD 4.10BUSD 3.73B 14.3413.062.55184.29217.54

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.