Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

DHL Group (DHL.DE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 05 Nov 2026 16:05.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 58.44. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 14.0%, net 4.4%, free cash flow 7.3% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.9%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 54.15Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range EUR 35.03 to EUR 88.16
-7%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

4.9%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 108.68BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 4.76BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 7.91BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.37Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 73.34Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 58.44
12.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

EUR 0 EUR 2.77B EUR 5.54B EUR 8.31B EUR 11.08B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -3.1% EUR 5.56B -1.1%
Base 2.9% EUR 7.91B 2.5%
Bull 8.9% EUR 11.08B 6.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– EUR 85.01BEUR 11.90BEUR 3.72BEUR 6.18B 3.325.511.8519.8658.44
Year 12.9% EUR 87.51BEUR 12.25BEUR 3.83BEUR 6.37B 3.415.671.9021.3759.94
Year 22.5% EUR 89.70BEUR 12.56BEUR 3.93BEUR 6.53B 3.505.821.9522.9261.21
Year 32.2% EUR 91.64BEUR 12.83BEUR 4.01BEUR 6.67B 3.585.941.9924.5062.30
Year 42.2% EUR 93.68BEUR 13.12BEUR 4.10BEUR 6.82B 3.666.072.0426.1163.46
Year 52.3% EUR 95.85BEUR 13.42BEUR 4.20BEUR 6.97B 3.746.212.0927.7764.68
Year 62.4% EUR 98.14BEUR 13.74BEUR 4.30BEUR 7.14B 3.836.362.1429.4666.23
Year 72.5% EUR 100.56BEUR 14.08BEUR 4.40BEUR 7.32B 3.926.522.1931.1967.86
Year 82.5% EUR 103.12BEUR 14.44BEUR 4.51BEUR 7.50B 4.026.692.2432.9769.59
Year 92.6% EUR 105.82BEUR 14.82BEUR 4.63BEUR 7.70B 4.136.862.3034.8071.41
Year 102.7% EUR 108.68BEUR 15.22BEUR 4.76BEUR 7.91B 4.247.052.3736.6773.34

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.