Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Derwent London Plc (DLN.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 12:42.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 19.57. Growth begins at 3.7% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 54.7%, net 41.4%, free cash flow 56.1% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-1.6%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 18.66Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range GBP 10.17 to GBP 34.58
-5%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; real estate: free cash flow after property spending is a poor guide; funds from operations fit better.

5.4%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 482.82MRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 200.11MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 270.79MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.00Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 24.03Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 19.57
12.3%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-GBP 403.20M -GBP 207.36M -GBP 11.52M GBP 184.32M GBP 380.17M FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -7.6% GBP 190.06M -1.4%
Base -1.6% GBP 270.79M 2.2%
Bull 4.4% GBP 380.17M 5.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 388.70MGBP 212.80MGBP 161.10MGBP 218.00M 1.441.940.8132.2119.57
Year 1-1.6% GBP 382.48MGBP 209.40MGBP 158.52MGBP 214.51M 1.411.910.8032.8219.21
Year 21.0% GBP 386.15MGBP 211.40MGBP 160.04MGBP 216.57M 1.431.930.8033.4419.35
Year 33.4% GBP 399.14MGBP 218.52MGBP 165.43MGBP 223.86M 1.471.990.8334.0919.96
Year 43.2% GBP 411.97MGBP 225.54MGBP 170.74MGBP 231.05M 1.522.060.8634.7520.55
Year 53.1% GBP 424.58MGBP 232.44MGBP 175.97MGBP 238.12M 1.572.120.8835.4421.13
Year 62.9% GBP 436.93MGBP 239.21MGBP 181.09MGBP 245.05M 1.612.180.9136.1421.74
Year 72.8% GBP 448.98MGBP 245.80MGBP 186.08MGBP 251.81M 1.662.240.9336.8622.34
Year 82.6% GBP 460.67MGBP 252.20MGBP 190.93MGBP 258.36M 1.702.300.9637.6122.92
Year 92.5% GBP 471.97MGBP 258.39MGBP 195.61MGBP 264.70M 1.742.360.9838.3723.49
Year 102.3% GBP 482.82MGBP 264.33MGBP 200.11MGBP 270.79M 1.782.411.0039.1424.03

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.