Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Dollar Tree (DLTR)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 31 Jul 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:42.

Starts from TTM through 31 Jul 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 137.94. Growth begins at 6.4% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 15.2%, net 8.0%, free cash flow 9.2% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 2.9 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (6.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 138.33Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 91.87 to USD 224.70
0%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data.

4.4%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 30.71BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 2.47BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 2.84BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 211.50Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 137.94
10.8%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 854.73M USD 1.71B USD 2.56B USD 3.42B FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 FY2026 TTM through 31 Jul 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 3.1% USD 2.34B 2.4%
Base 6.1% USD 2.84B 4.3%
Bull 9.0% USD 3.42B 6.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 31 Jul 2026– USD 20.07BUSD 3.04BUSD 1.61BUSD 1.85B 8.459.71n/an/a137.94
Year 16.1% USD 21.28BUSD 3.23BUSD 1.71BUSD 1.97B 8.9610.30n/an/a146.35
Year 26.0% USD 22.56BUSD 3.42BUSD 1.81BUSD 2.08B 9.4910.91n/an/a155.16
Year 35.5% USD 23.79BUSD 3.61BUSD 1.91BUSD 2.20B 10.0111.51n/an/a163.72
Year 45.0% USD 24.99BUSD 3.79BUSD 2.01BUSD 2.31B 10.5212.09n/an/a172.04
Year 54.6% USD 26.14BUSD 3.96BUSD 2.10BUSD 2.41B 11.0012.64n/an/a180.02
Year 64.2% USD 27.22BUSD 4.13BUSD 2.19BUSD 2.51B 11.4613.17n/an/a187.50
Year 73.7% USD 28.23BUSD 4.28BUSD 2.27BUSD 2.61B 11.8813.66n/an/a194.47
Year 83.3% USD 29.16BUSD 4.42BUSD 2.34BUSD 2.69B 12.2714.11n/an/a200.84
Year 92.8% USD 29.99BUSD 4.55BUSD 2.41BUSD 2.77B 12.6214.51n/an/a206.54
Year 102.4% USD 30.71BUSD 4.66BUSD 2.47BUSD 2.84B 12.9214.85n/an/a211.50

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.