Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Healthpeak Properties (DOC)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:55.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 20.12. Growth begins at 7.8% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.3% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 57.5%, net 12.7%, free cash flow 10.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (7.8%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 18.70Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range USD 14.26 to USD 26.92
-7%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value; real estate: free cash flow after property spending is a poor guide; funds from operations fit better.

7.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 5.01BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 634.82MNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 433.46MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 0.92Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 32.33Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 20.12
3.1%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

USD 0.00 USD 0.32 USD 0.64 USD 0.96 USD 1.28 FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 1.8% USD 0.66 -6.1%
Base 7.8% USD 0.92 -2.8%
Bull 13.8% USD 1.28 0.4%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 3.06BUSD 1.76BUSD 388.11MUSD 332.53M 0.560.481.2211.4120.12
Year 17.8% USD 3.30BUSD 1.90BUSD 418.18MUSD 343.75M 0.610.500.6111.4121.60
Year 27.5% USD 3.55BUSD 2.04BUSD 449.34MUSD 353.73M 0.650.510.6511.4123.13
Year 36.5% USD 3.78BUSD 2.17BUSD 478.76MUSD 360.22M 0.690.520.6911.4124.56
Year 45.9% USD 4.01BUSD 2.30BUSD 507.20MUSD 363.97M 0.740.530.7411.4125.92
Year 55.3% USD 4.22BUSD 2.43BUSD 534.25MUSD 364.79M 0.770.530.7711.4127.21
Year 64.7% USD 4.42BUSD 2.54BUSD 559.50MUSD 382.03M 0.810.550.8111.4128.49
Year 74.1% USD 4.60BUSD 2.65BUSD 582.55MUSD 397.77M 0.840.580.8411.4129.67
Year 83.5% USD 4.76BUSD 2.74BUSD 603.02MUSD 411.75M 0.870.600.8711.4130.71
Year 92.9% USD 4.90BUSD 2.82BUSD 620.55MUSD 423.72M 0.900.610.9011.4131.60
Year 102.3% USD 5.01BUSD 2.88BUSD 634.82MUSD 433.46M 0.920.630.9211.4132.33

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.