Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

DaVita (DVA)

Price updated 07 Nov 2026 00:04; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 07 Nov 2026 00:04.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in USD and a share price of USD 191.35. Growth begins at 4.6% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 20.2%, net 5.5%, free cash flow 9.6% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 3.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 259.91Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 197.46 to USD 368.54
36%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

4.5%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 19.47BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 1.07BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 1.87BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 297.51Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 191.35
12.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 565.72M USD 1.13B USD 1.70B USD 2.26B FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.7% USD 1.54B 1.6%
Base 3.7% USD 1.87B 3.6%
Bull 6.7% USD 2.26B 5.6%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– USD 13.64BUSD 2.75BUSD 746.80MUSD 1.31B 9.8417.27n/an/a191.35
Year 13.7% USD 14.15BUSD 2.85BUSD 774.58MUSD 1.36B 10.2117.91n/an/a202.02
Year 24.1% USD 14.72BUSD 2.97BUSD 806.01MUSD 1.41B 10.6218.64n/an/a213.92
Year 34.2% USD 15.34BUSD 3.09BUSD 839.91MUSD 1.47B 11.0719.42n/an/a226.77
Year 44.0% USD 15.96BUSD 3.22BUSD 873.68MUSD 1.53B 11.5120.21n/an/a239.90
Year 53.8% USD 16.57BUSD 3.34BUSD 907.17MUSD 1.59B 11.9520.98n/an/a253.26
Year 63.6% USD 17.18BUSD 3.46BUSD 940.25MUSD 1.65B 12.3921.75n/an/a262.50
Year 73.5% USD 17.77BUSD 3.58BUSD 972.78MUSD 1.71B 12.8222.50n/an/a271.58
Year 83.3% USD 18.35BUSD 3.70BUSD 1.00BUSD 1.76B 13.2423.23n/an/a280.47
Year 93.1% USD 18.92BUSD 3.82BUSD 1.04BUSD 1.82B 13.6523.95n/an/a289.12
Year 102.9% USD 19.47BUSD 3.93BUSD 1.07BUSD 1.87B 14.0424.65n/an/a297.51

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.