Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.
Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:40.
Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 42.88. Growth begins at 5.3% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.5% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 44.9%, net 16.7%, free cash flow 8.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.
Confidence: Earnings-based DCF disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.
| Case | Starting growth | Year 10 | Annual growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.1% | USD 3.70B | 8.3% |
| Base | 3.9% | USD 5.24B | 12.1% |
| Bull | 9.9% | USD 7.30B | 15.9% |
| Year | Growth | Revenue | EBITDA | Net income | Free cash flow | EPS | FCF / share | Dividend / share | Book / share | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTM through 30 Jun 2026 | – | USD 19.68B | USD 8.83B | USD 3.28B | USD 1.67B | 3.49 | 1.78 | 0.87 | 44.41 | 42.88 |
| Year 1 | 3.9% | USD 20.44B | USD 9.17B | USD 3.59B | USD 2.15B | 3.81 | 2.28 | 0.95 | 47.27 | 45.16 |
| Year 2 | 4.4% | USD 21.34B | USD 9.58B | USD 3.93B | USD 2.67B | 4.18 | 2.84 | 1.05 | 50.41 | 47.63 |
| Year 3 | 4.7% | USD 22.34B | USD 10.03B | USD 4.31B | USD 3.24B | 4.59 | 3.45 | 1.15 | 53.84 | 50.16 |
| Year 4 | 4.4% | USD 23.32B | USD 10.47B | USD 4.70B | USD 3.85B | 5.00 | 4.09 | 1.25 | 57.60 | 52.48 |
| Year 5 | 4.1% | USD 24.26B | USD 10.89B | USD 5.11B | USD 4.49B | 5.43 | 4.78 | 1.36 | 61.67 | 54.54 |
| Year 6 | 3.7% | USD 25.17B | USD 11.30B | USD 5.30B | USD 4.66B | 5.64 | 4.96 | 1.41 | 65.90 | 56.58 |
| Year 7 | 3.4% | USD 26.04B | USD 11.69B | USD 5.48B | USD 4.82B | 5.83 | 5.13 | 1.46 | 70.27 | 58.53 |
| Year 8 | 3.1% | USD 26.85B | USD 12.05B | USD 5.65B | USD 4.97B | 6.01 | 5.29 | 1.50 | 74.77 | 60.36 |
| Year 9 | 2.8% | USD 27.61B | USD 12.39B | USD 5.81B | USD 5.11B | 6.18 | 5.44 | 1.55 | 79.41 | 62.05 |
| Year 10 | 2.5% | USD 28.30B | USD 12.70B | USD 5.96B | USD 5.24B | 6.34 | 5.57 | 1.59 | 84.16 | 63.60 |
EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.