Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Endesa, S.A. (ELE.MC)

Price updated 07 Nov 2026 00:04; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:12.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 44.20. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.2% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 29.4%, net 10.9%, free cash flow 8.8% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (1.4%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 20.47Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range EUR 12.07 to EUR 36.70
-54%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

1.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 27.41BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.99BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.42BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 1.92Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 32.22Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 44.20
5.3%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-EUR 460.00M EUR 504.75M EUR 1.47B EUR 2.43B EUR 3.40B FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -4.6% EUR 1.70B -1.5%
Base 1.4% EUR 2.42B 2.0%
Bull 7.4% EUR 3.40B 5.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– EUR 22.46BEUR 6.60BEUR 2.45BEUR 1.98B 2.361.921.577.5244.20
Year 11.4% EUR 22.78BEUR 6.69BEUR 2.48BEUR 2.01B 2.401.941.608.3241.22
Year 21.7% EUR 23.17BEUR 6.81BEUR 2.53BEUR 2.05B 2.441.981.629.1438.26
Year 32.0% EUR 23.64BEUR 6.95BEUR 2.58BEUR 2.09B 2.492.021.669.9835.29
Year 42.1% EUR 24.13BEUR 7.09BEUR 2.63BEUR 2.13B 2.542.061.6910.8332.20
Year 52.1% EUR 24.64BEUR 7.24BEUR 2.69BEUR 2.18B 2.592.101.7311.6928.96
Year 62.1% EUR 25.16BEUR 7.39BEUR 2.74BEUR 2.22B 2.652.151.7612.5829.58
Year 72.1% EUR 25.69BEUR 7.55BEUR 2.80BEUR 2.27B 2.712.191.8013.4930.21
Year 82.2% EUR 26.25BEUR 7.71BEUR 2.86BEUR 2.32B 2.762.241.8414.4130.86
Year 92.2% EUR 26.82BEUR 7.88BEUR 2.92BEUR 2.37B 2.822.291.8815.3631.53
Year 102.2% EUR 27.41BEUR 8.05BEUR 2.99BEUR 2.42B 2.892.341.9216.3232.22

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.