Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Elisa Oyj (ELISA.HE)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:56.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 34.00. Growth begins at 3.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 34.2%, net 14.7%, free cash flow 16.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 1.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (2.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 32.50Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range EUR 25.41 to EUR 44.75
-4%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Free-cash-flow DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

7.1%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 2.98BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 438.09MNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 492.38MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.73Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 43.64Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 34.00
9.0%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 0.77 EUR 1.54 EUR 2.31 EUR 3.08 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 0.5% EUR 2.41 0.2%
Base 2.0% EUR 2.73 1.4%
Bull 3.5% EUR 3.08 2.7%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– EUR 2.25BEUR 769.60MEUR 330.00MEUR 370.90M 2.052.312.378.2834.00
Year 12.0% EUR 2.29BEUR 784.76MEUR 336.50MEUR 378.21M 2.092.352.098.2834.44
Year 22.6% EUR 2.35BEUR 804.99MEUR 345.17MEUR 387.95M 2.152.412.158.2835.09
Year 33.1% EUR 2.43BEUR 830.33MEUR 356.04MEUR 400.17M 2.222.492.228.2835.96
Year 43.1% EUR 2.50BEUR 856.19MEUR 367.13MEUR 412.63M 2.292.572.298.2836.82
Year 53.1% EUR 2.58BEUR 882.54MEUR 378.43MEUR 425.33M 2.362.652.368.2837.70
Year 63.0% EUR 2.66BEUR 909.39MEUR 389.94MEUR 438.27M 2.432.732.438.2838.85
Year 73.0% EUR 2.74BEUR 936.73MEUR 401.66MEUR 451.45M 2.502.812.508.2840.02
Year 83.0% EUR 2.82BEUR 964.56MEUR 413.60MEUR 464.86M 2.572.892.578.2841.20
Year 92.9% EUR 2.90BEUR 992.87MEUR 425.74MEUR 478.50M 2.652.982.658.2842.41
Year 102.9% EUR 2.98BEUR 1.02BEUR 438.09MEUR 492.38M 2.733.062.738.2843.64

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.