Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Embracer Group AB (EMBRAC-B.ST)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 14:22.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in SEK and a share price of SEK 95.44. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.9% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 26.1%, net -31.8%, free cash flow 9.9% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 2.5 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

The company is loss-making today, so the projection keeps the loss margin. It does not model a path to profit.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.9%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
SEK 117.15Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range SEK 91.38 to SEK 162.27
23%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: EV/EBITDA (12x) disagrees strongly; trailing-twelve-month data.

3.3%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
SEK 22.11BRevenue in year 10 (base)
-SEK 7.02BNet income in year 10 (base)
SEK 2.18BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
SEK 131.94Implied share price in year 10 (base), today SEK 95.44
10.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

-SEK 1.61B -SEK 562.81M SEK 486.38M SEK 1.54B SEK 2.58B FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 FY2026 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 1.3% SEK 1.83B 1.0%
Base 3.9% SEK 2.18B 2.7%
Bull 6.4% SEK 2.58B 4.5%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– SEK 16.90BSEK 4.41B-SEK 5.37BSEK 1.67B -25.197.82n/an/a95.44
Year 13.9% SEK 17.55BSEK 4.58B-SEK 5.57BSEK 1.73B -26.168.12n/an/a100.24
Year 23.0% SEK 18.07BSEK 4.72B-SEK 5.74BSEK 1.78B -26.948.36n/an/a104.38
Year 32.2% SEK 18.47BSEK 4.82B-SEK 5.86BSEK 1.82B -27.538.55n/an/a107.87
Year 42.3% SEK 18.90BSEK 4.93B-SEK 6.00BSEK 1.86B -28.178.75n/an/a111.56
Year 52.4% SEK 19.35BSEK 5.05B-SEK 6.14BSEK 1.91B -28.848.95n/an/a115.48
Year 62.5% SEK 19.83BSEK 5.18B-SEK 6.30BSEK 1.96B -29.569.18n/an/a118.37
Year 72.6% SEK 20.35BSEK 5.31B-SEK 6.46BSEK 2.01B -30.339.42n/an/a121.45
Year 82.7% SEK 20.90BSEK 5.46B-SEK 6.64BSEK 2.06B -31.159.67n/an/a124.72
Year 92.8% SEK 21.48BSEK 5.61B-SEK 6.82BSEK 2.12B -32.029.94n/an/a128.22
Year 102.9% SEK 22.11BSEK 5.77B-SEK 7.02BSEK 2.18B -32.9510.23n/an/a131.94

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.