Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Emcor (EME)

Price updated 07 Nov 2026 00:04; TTM through 30 Sep 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:54.

Starts from TTM through 30 Sep 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 608.45. Growth begins at 11.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.7% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 12.1%, net 7.8%, free cash flow 7.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 2.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (12.1%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 675.14Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 501.71 to USD 984.10
11%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

8.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 39.33BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 3.05BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 2.94BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 0.79Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 1,305.23Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 608.45
10.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 845.64M USD 1.69B USD 2.54B USD 3.38B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Sep 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear 10.0% USD 2.55B 5.6%
Base 12.1% USD 2.94B 7.1%
Bull 14.1% USD 3.38B 8.6%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Sep 2026– USD 19.84BUSD 2.40BUSD 1.54BUSD 1.48B 34.8333.500.4096.64608.45
Year 112.1% USD 22.23BUSD 2.56BUSD 1.73BUSD 1.66B 39.0337.540.45135.22693.04
Year 211.2% USD 24.71BUSD 2.70BUSD 1.92BUSD 1.85B 43.3841.720.50178.10782.80
Year 39.3% USD 27.01BUSD 2.79BUSD 2.10BUSD 2.02B 47.4145.610.54224.97869.24
Year 48.4% USD 29.27BUSD 2.86BUSD 2.27BUSD 2.19B 51.3849.420.59275.76956.67
Year 57.4% USD 31.44BUSD 2.88BUSD 2.44BUSD 2.35B 55.1953.080.63330.311,043.48
Year 66.5% USD 33.48BUSD 3.07BUSD 2.60BUSD 2.50B 58.7656.520.67388.401,111.03
Year 75.5% USD 35.33BUSD 3.24BUSD 2.74BUSD 2.64B 62.0159.640.71449.701,172.47
Year 84.6% USD 36.95BUSD 3.39BUSD 2.87BUSD 2.76B 64.8562.380.74513.811,226.24
Year 93.6% USD 38.30BUSD 3.51BUSD 2.97BUSD 2.86B 67.2264.650.77580.251,270.92
Year 102.7% USD 39.33BUSD 3.61BUSD 3.05BUSD 2.94B 69.0366.400.79648.491,305.23

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.