Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Man Group Plc (EMG.L)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 14:47; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 06 Nov 2026 15:56.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in GBP and a share price of GBP 2.98. Growth begins at 3.2% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.4% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 24.3%, net 12.0%, free cash flow 17.5% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

For banks, insurers and holding companies, revenue and cash flow mix in interest and investment flows. Read net income rather than free cash flow.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (3.7%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
GBP 1.29Model fair value (Justified P/B (ROE)); range GBP 1.12 to GBP 1.59
-57%Fair value vs today's price
HighModel confidence
75%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years.

0.4%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
GBP 1.48BRevenue in year 10 (base)
GBP 177.78MNet income in year 10 (base)
GBP 260.07MFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
GBP 0.16Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
GBP 1.71Implied share price in year 10 (base), today GBP 2.98
7.7%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Book value per share over time

GBP 0.00 GBP 0.26 GBP 0.53 GBP 0.79 GBP 1.05 FY2020 FY2022 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Book value per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -2.3% GBP 1.04 0.0%
Base 3.7% GBP 1.04 0.0%
Bull 9.7% GBP 1.04 0.0%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– GBP 1.12BGBP 271.15MGBP 133.67MGBP 195.54M 0.120.170.131.042.98
Year 13.7% GBP 1.16BGBP 281.19MGBP 138.61MGBP 202.77M 0.120.180.121.042.73
Year 23.4% GBP 1.20BGBP 290.81MGBP 143.36MGBP 209.71M 0.130.180.131.042.47
Year 33.1% GBP 1.23BGBP 299.69MGBP 147.74MGBP 216.12M 0.130.190.131.042.22
Year 43.0% GBP 1.27BGBP 308.56MGBP 152.11MGBP 222.51M 0.130.200.131.041.97
Year 52.9% GBP 1.31BGBP 317.41MGBP 156.47MGBP 228.89M 0.140.200.141.041.71
Year 62.8% GBP 1.34BGBP 326.21MGBP 160.81MGBP 235.24M 0.140.210.141.041.71
Year 72.7% GBP 1.38BGBP 334.95MGBP 165.12MGBP 241.54M 0.150.210.151.041.71
Year 82.6% GBP 1.41BGBP 343.62MGBP 169.39MGBP 247.79M 0.150.220.151.041.71
Year 92.5% GBP 1.45BGBP 352.19MGBP 173.61MGBP 253.97M 0.150.220.151.041.71
Year 102.4% GBP 1.48BGBP 360.64MGBP 177.78MGBP 260.07M 0.160.230.161.041.71

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.