Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

Enel S.p.A. (ENEL.MI)

Price update date unknown; Fiscal year 2025; Annual financials downloaded 04 Nov 2026 15:22.

Starts from Fiscal year 2025 financials in EUR and a share price of EUR 9.32. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.2% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 30.7%, net 6.3%, free cash flow 6.4% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 3-year average over 5 years (free cash flow), because today's margin is far above the company's own average.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (1.9%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
EUR 7.26Model fair value (Dividend discount model); range EUR 5.52 to EUR 10.52
-22%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF is somewhat apart; annual data only; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; value is more than 1.5x the Earnings-based DCF value.

5.0%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
EUR 82.90BRevenue in year 10 (base)
EUR 5.19BNet income in year 10 (base)
EUR 2.93BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
EUR 0.48Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
EUR 10.82Implied share price in year 10 (base), today EUR 9.32
2.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Dividend per share over time

EUR 0.00 EUR 0.17 EUR 0.34 EUR 0.50 EUR 0.67 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 Fiscal year 2025 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Dividend per share in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -4.1% EUR 0.34 -3.3%
Base 1.9% EUR 0.48 0.2%
Bull 7.9% EUR 0.67 3.6%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
Fiscal year 2025– EUR 67.45BEUR 20.71BEUR 4.22BEUR 4.29B 0.390.400.47n/a9.32
Year 11.9% EUR 68.73BEUR 21.11BEUR 4.31BEUR 3.99B 0.400.370.40n/a9.39
Year 22.0% EUR 70.08BEUR 21.52BEUR 4.39BEUR 3.67B 0.410.340.41n/a9.47
Year 32.0% EUR 71.51BEUR 21.96BEUR 4.48BEUR 3.34B 0.410.310.41n/a9.55
Year 42.1% EUR 72.99BEUR 22.42BEUR 4.57BEUR 2.99B 0.420.280.42n/a9.64
Year 52.1% EUR 74.52BEUR 22.88BEUR 4.67BEUR 2.63B 0.430.240.43n/a9.73
Year 62.1% EUR 76.09BEUR 23.37BEUR 4.77BEUR 2.69B 0.440.250.44n/a9.93
Year 72.1% EUR 77.71BEUR 23.87BEUR 4.87BEUR 2.75B 0.450.250.45n/a10.15
Year 82.2% EUR 79.39BEUR 24.38BEUR 4.97BEUR 2.81B 0.460.260.46n/a10.36
Year 92.2% EUR 81.12BEUR 24.91BEUR 5.08BEUR 2.87B 0.470.260.47n/a10.59
Year 102.2% EUR 82.90BEUR 25.46BEUR 5.19BEUR 2.93B 0.480.270.48n/a10.82

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.