Forecast

Financial forecast

Project revenue, EBITDA, net income and free cash flow for the next 5 or 10 years. Growth starts at the same rate the valuation uses and fades to the long-run rate, with margins held at today's level. Bear and bull cases move growth by the company's own revenue volatility. It is a model of what the assumptions imply, not a prediction.

EOG Resources (EOG)

Price updated 06 Nov 2026 09:56; TTM through 30 Jun 2026; TTM financials updated 06 Nov 2026 12:29.

Starts from TTM through 30 Jun 2026 financials in USD and a share price of USD 144.89. Growth begins at 2.0% a year (the valuation's blended assumption) and fades to 2.5% by year 10. Margins held at EBITDA 51.8%, net 25.7%, free cash flow 24.7% of revenue. Bear and bull move starting growth by 6.0 points and long-run growth by 1 point.

Margins drift toward their 5-year average over 5 years (EBITDA, net, free cash flow), because this is a cyclical business.
Year 1 uses analyst consensus revenue growth (-10.0%); year 2 is halfway back to the model's own path.
USD 154.36Model fair value (Free-cash-flow DCF); range USD 116.26 to USD 218.03
7%Fair value vs today's price
LowModel confidence
25%Share of the gap to fair value the price closes by year 5

Confidence: Earnings-based DCF agrees; trailing-twelve-month data; profit and cash flow steady for 3 years; cyclical business: current cash flow is a poor guide to the cycle.

3.2%/yrModel-implied annual total return over 10 years, base case (price plus dividends). Raw model level; the screener shows a calibrated ranking instead
USD 27.73BRevenue in year 10 (base)
USD 7.42BNet income in year 10 (base)
USD 11.40BFree cash flow in year 10 (base)
USD 4.45Dividend per share in year 10 (base)
USD 159.00Implied share price in year 10 (base), today USD 144.89
14.9%Year-10 free cash flow per share vs today's price

Free cash flow over time

USD 0 USD 4.04B USD 8.08B USD 12.12B USD 16.16B FY2021 FY2023 FY2025 TTM through 30 Jun 2026 +1 +3 +5 +7 +9 +10
Solid: reported Dashed: base projection Shaded: bear to bull range
Free cash flow in year 10 by scenario
CaseStarting growthYear 10Annual growth
Bear -16.0% USD 7.91B 1.8%
Base -10.0% USD 11.40B 5.6%
Bull -4.0% USD 16.16B 9.3%

Base case by year

YearGrowthRevenueEBITDANet incomeFree cash flowEPSFCF / shareDividend / shareBook / shareImplied price
TTM through 30 Jun 2026– USD 26.75BUSD 13.87BUSD 6.88BUSD 6.61B 13.0012.504.1260.23144.89
Year 1-10.0% USD 24.07BUSD 12.47BUSD 6.24BUSD 6.74B 11.7912.743.7468.29131.88
Year 2-4.0% USD 23.11BUSD 11.97BUSD 6.04BUSD 7.23B 11.4213.663.6276.09128.09
Year 32.1% USD 23.60BUSD 12.22BUSD 6.22BUSD 8.15B 11.7515.413.7284.12132.28
Year 42.2% USD 24.11BUSD 12.47BUSD 6.40BUSD 9.12B 12.1017.243.8492.38136.68
Year 52.2% USD 24.64BUSD 12.75BUSD 6.60BUSD 10.13B 12.4719.153.95100.90141.29
Year 62.3% USD 25.21BUSD 13.04BUSD 6.75BUSD 10.36B 12.7619.594.04109.62144.51
Year 72.3% USD 25.79BUSD 13.34BUSD 6.91BUSD 10.60B 13.0520.044.14118.53147.88
Year 82.4% USD 26.41BUSD 13.66BUSD 7.07BUSD 10.86B 13.3720.524.24127.66151.42
Year 92.4% USD 27.06BUSD 13.99BUSD 7.24BUSD 11.12B 13.6921.024.34137.02155.12
Year 102.5% USD 27.73BUSD 14.34BUSD 7.42BUSD 11.40B 14.0321.554.45146.60159.00

EPS and free cash flow per share assume today's share count. Dividends assume today's payout ratio and book value grows with retained earnings. The implied share price follows the valuation models and is not a price target; override growth settings do not change the model fair value. Margins stay at today's level except where the notes say they drift toward their average, so it does not model margin expansion, buybacks, acquisitions or recessions. It is for information and education only and is not investment advice. See the methodology for how the growth rate is blended.